EU NatGas Hits 2023 Energy Crisis Levels As Trump’s “Economic D-Day” Clouds Hormuz Reopening

European natural gas prices surged to levels last seen during the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when severe supply disruptions sent global markets into turmoil.

The catalyst was an overnight Truth Social post from President Trump declaring “ECONOMIC D-DAY” against Iran. The announcement raises the probability of prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime transit corridor for Gulf energy exports.

For Europe, continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would constrain access to Gulf LNG, intensify competition for seaborne cargoes, and deepen the continent’s reliance on US supplies. With European storage inventories already well below seasonal norms and the winter replenishment window narrowing, traders are slapping a premium on natural gas prices on Thursday.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose as much as 2.5% today and soared above 65 euros per megawatt-hour, a level last seen in 1Q23.

Trump stated in an overnight Truth Social post that, with Tehran’s military and military-industrial base reduced to “now rubble” and its “currency worthless,” he will unleash severe economic consequences against “ANY country that allows its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any type of lifeline to Iran.”

Earlier this week, Simon Penn, a London-based UBS macro strategist, focused on Germany’s NatGas storage, which is only 50% full, compared with 57% a year ago and well below the 2009-25 average of 77%.

Europe, more broadly, is well below the 2009-25 average of 74%, with storage currently at around 61%.

It’s not just low NatGas storage levels that Europeans have to worry about at this time of year, but also a diesel shortage. Combining these two problems, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, recently warned that this energy crunch is “what keeps her up at night.”

Must-Reads:

• “Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot”: Here’s What Keeps Goldman’s Commodities Guru Up At Night
• Winter Is Coming: Europe Faces Twin Diesel And NatGas Crunch
• “Generates A Number Of Risks”: UBS Warns German NatGas Storage Levels Alarmingly Below Seasonal Norms

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats wrote earlier that “the window to normalize before winter is rapidly closing.” Translation: Lower NatGas stockpiles will put a bid under prices and fuel inflation across the EU.

At this point, Europeans had better hope that a strong El Niño would produce relatively mild weather. Otherwise, the continent could face a cold and extremely expensive winter.