Tailing 10Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since 2007

When discussing yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, we said that the impressive demand for 3 year paper indicated that nobody was worried about today’s CPI print… and as we learned this morning, that was justified, since the CPI came in right as expected. And since inflation is tame, and the labor market is not overheating, virtually nobody were worried that today’s 10Y auction would have any issues finding new holders. Well, they were right: moments ago the US sold $42 billion in 10Y coupons, the week’s second refunding auction. It priced at a high yield of 4.683%, up from 4.586% a month ago, and just wide of the 4.682% When Issued, translating to the first tail since May. Perhaps more notably, today’s 10Y auction priced at the highest yield since 2007.

The bid to cover was virtually unchanged from last month, and in line with where it has been for much of the past decade: plus or minus 25bps of 2.50%. Sure enough, at 2.532, the bid to cover was a bit lower than the 2.592 a month ago, but above the six auction average of 2.47.

Internals were also solid, if hardly great, with Indirects awarded 76.73%, down from 81.49% in July – one of the highest ever – but above the recent average of 71.33, as foreign buyers once again park their excess cash in the US. And with Directs awarded 14.67%, up from 10.73% in July and the highest since May, Dealers were left holding 8.6%, one of the lowest on record.

Overall, this was a solid auction, and following yesterday’s impressive 3Y, we expect tomorrow’s 30Y sale to have no problems finding buyers.