Mediocre 3Y Auction Tails Despite Solid Buyside Demand

With markets thrown in turmoil following Trump’s threat to restart war against Iran in retaliation for downing a US Apache helicopter, it wasn’t clear how today’s $58 billion 3 year auction would go. In the end, it wasn’t great, or terrible: a little tail, but besides that all metrics were relatively solid.  

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.192%, up from 3.965% in May and the highest yield since Feb ’25. It tailed the When Issued 4.189% by 0.3bps, the 2nd consecutive tail.

The bid to cover was 2.645, up from 2.540 last month, and above the recent average of 2.614. 

The internals were also solid, with Indirects awarded 63.7%, up from 62.96%, though just below the 6-auction average of 63.87%. Directs were awarded 21.01%, modestly higher than 20.14% last month leaving dealers holding 15.28%, a slight decline from 16.90% last month.

Overall, this was an average auction, with forgettable metrics, which was to be expected in light of the broader market selling that provided a buffer to any lack of buyer demand. It also signaled that despite expectations that tomorrow’s CPI will be the first 4%+ print in 4 years, the bond market isn’t too worried… yet.