Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Realizing Their Largest Losses On Record; Most Oversold Since 2018 Collapse

After this week’s bloodbath…

Bitcoin is now flashing its most oversold signal since 2018, raising the odds of a relief rebound toward $70,000 in the coming weeks.

The extremely oversold reading followed a roughly 30% decline in BTC over the past month, as geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, fading hopes for a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut, and panic over Strategy’s latest Bitcoin sale weighed on sentiment.

In addition, there was some online chatter seems to speculate that retail investors may be selling crypto to chase the biggest IPO ever.

The Elon Musk-owned rockets, satellite and AI company SpaceX is selling up to 30% of its record $75 billion offering straight to retail investors through Robinhood, Fidelity and Charles Schwab, more than three times the slice a typical IPO sets aside for individuals.

The roadshow opened Thursday already oversubscribed, with more orders than shares on offer, Bloomberg reported. It is offering shares at a $1.8 trillion valuation.

Bitcoin fell roughly 16% over the same timespan and briefly traded below $60,000 before recovering to around $61,000.

Oversold readings this extreme often appear near seller-exhaustion zones where short-term buyers begin positioning for a relief rebound.

In 2018, the collapse was triggered in large part by the SEC’s regulatory crackdown on ICOs, announcing its first civil penalties against Paragon and CarrierEQ/Airfox. But, the 2018 bear market was already underway due to the bursting of the 2017 ICO bubble, regulatory uncertainty (China bans, etc.), exchange hacks, and fading retail hype. November was more of a capitulation phase than a new shock.

In 2020, Bitcoin’s RSI dropped to around 15.56 before BTC rebounded by about 50%, helped by the Federal Reserve’s emergency shift to near-zero interest rates and large-scale bond purchases. 

In February 2026, for instance, BTC’s daily RSI dropped to around 15.86 while price held above the $60,000 support area. The signal preceded a nearly 30% recovery toward $82,850.

Following bitcoin’s worst week in two years, Strategy(MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor published a framework on X, arguing that the Bitcoin community is evolving into four distinct ideological camps.

As CoinDesk reports, rather than viewing these groups as competitors, he presents them as complementary forces that will collectively shape bitcoin’s future.

• The first group, Bitcoin Maximalists, sees Bitcoin as the ultimate monetary breakthrough. They believe bitcoin has already solved the problem of digital scarcity and offers superior property rights, protection from inflation, and economic empowerment. Their focus is conviction: bitcoin is not one crypto asset among many, but the dominant digital monetary network.

• The second group, Bitcoin Capitalists, views Bitcoin as a form of digital capital that should be integrated into the global economy. They support corporate treasury adoption, institutional custody, bitcoin-backed securities, lending markets, and broader financial infrastructure. Their goal is to expand bitcoin’s reach by embedding it into existing economic systems rather than replacing them.

• The third group, Bitcoin Technologists, focuses on improving the protocol. They argue that Bitcoin must continue to evolve to address challenges in scalability, privacy, usability, security, and future threats such as quantum computing. While they support innovation, Saylor notes that changes to bitcoin’s base layer must be approached cautiously to avoid unintended consequences.

• The fourth group, Bitcoin Fundamentalists, prioritize protecting bitcoin’s original principles: decentralization, self-custody, immutability, censorship resistance, and individual sovereignty. They are wary of excessive institutional influence, financialization, and protocol changes that could compromise Bitcoin’s core characteristics.

Saylor’s central argument is that Bitcoin needs all four perspectives. Maximalists provide conviction, Capitalists drive adoption, Technologists ensure long-term resilience, and Fundamentalists safeguard the protocol’s integrity.

Saylor argues that Bitcoin’s most successful path lies in a balance among these four forces.

As CoinTelegraph reports, Bitcoin has fulfilled two of three key conditions to spark the next BTC price “rally,” new analysis says.

Bitcoin price comeback hinges on US, Korea demand

Bitcoin whale traders are laying the foundations for BTC price relief, even as BTC/USD plumbs two year lows.

In an X post on Friday, trader CW confirmed that Bitcoin whales on both Hyperliquid and Bitfinex are signaling a market rebound.

BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex. Source: CW/X

CW notes that Hyperliquid whales have adopted a “bullish stance” on the market, while on Bitfinex, long positions have tailed off. The latter is a classic sign that an uptrend is due next.

“What remains is for the Kimchi Premium and Coinbase Premium to turn positive,” he commented.

The Coinbase Premium is the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs and has been mostly negative in 2026.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

A negative premium reflects weak US demand, while the Kimchi Premium monitors the South Korean exchange sector.

Once demand returns across the board, Bitcoin has a better chance of reentering a sustainable uptrend.

CW acknowledged that the Kimchi Premium has already “decreased significantly” versus earlier in the week.

Bitcoin starts its latest “bottoming out” phase

As Cointelegraph reported, consensus overall favors a macro bottoming phase playing out for BTC/USD next.

The week has seen the pair touch a key bear-market trend line in the form of its 200-week simple moving average (SMA) — another essential ingredient in a bottom formation.

“Bitcoin has only just started deviating below the 200-week SMA,”  trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized to X followers on Friday.

“The significance of this is that historical Bear Market Bottoming out formations have started to develop via such deviations.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Earlier, trader Leviathan described BTC price action as copying the 2022 bear market “almost perfectly.”

Additionally, CoinTelegraph notes that short-term bitcoin holders are realizing their largest losses on record, according to Checkonchain data cited by crypto analyst Scott Melker.

The short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio has dropped to a new all-time low, falling below levels seen in previous Bitcoin drawdowns.

Bitcoin short-term holder realized profit/loss ratio vs. price. Source: Checkonchain

The metric tracks whether recent buyers are selling at a profit or loss. A deeply negative reading means newer holders are exiting below their cost basis, signaling panic selling.

Melker also noted that roughly 5.3 million BTC held by long-term holders is now underwater, above the post-FTX peak and the highest level since the March 2020 COVID crash.

Similar stress has appeared near past capitulation zones. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 after FTX before rallying roughly 690% to around $126,000 in 2025. After the COVID crash, BTC rose about 1,700% from $3,800 to nearly $69,000.

“Sentiment has tracked price almost perfectly,” Melker said, adding:

“Traders were euphoric at the May peak, then hit peak despair on June 3. That’s usually when the bottom is close. Usually.”

And finally, bitcoin bears piled aggressively into short positions as BTC price slid to $60,000, raising the question: Will the $2.6 billion in new short leverage lead to an upside squeeze?

The Bitcoin (BTC) crash to $61,100 on Friday wiped out $335 million in leveraged long positions. However, after a 21% decline in Bitcoin’s price, bulls might have set a perfect trap as negative market sentiment intensified. Bearish positions built up heavily between $63,000 and $66,000, setting the stage for a potential $2.6 billion short squeeze.

Estimated cumulative Bitcoin liquidation at major exchanges, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Estimated liquidations for a further 8% drop in Bitcoin to $57,000 from $62,000 stand at $1.2 billion. In contrast, a rally to $66,000 would put $2.6 billion of short positions at risk. This potential squeeze might provide enough fuel to revive buyer confidence following a record-breaking 13-day streak of net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue

The minor $3 million net inflow on Thursday could represent a temporary breathing room after 15 days of selling that drained $5.1 billion. It remains too early to conclude that momentum has officially flipped in favor of the bulls. Ultimately, if bears kept their leverage low and played conservatively, the actual threat of a massive short squeeze might be minimal.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas

A neutral funding rate typically ranges between 6% and 12%, with longs paying to keep their positions open. The current negative 2% Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate suggests growing confidence among bears. Thus, even if it takes time for Bitcoin to reclaim the $66,000 level, bulls have fully deleveraged, reducing downside risk.

Nasdaq 100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has severely underperformed the Nasdaq 100 index, but the tech sector is beginning to display weakness after Broadcom (AVGO US) closed down 12.6% Thursday, erasing $280 billion in market value. The company trimmed its AI chip sales forecast for the second half of 2026, putting investors on alert.

Impact of the tech sector IPOs and Strategy’s 32 BTC sale

Other prominent names in the AI sector also felt the impact. Micron (MU US) traded down 7.8% while Arm (ARM US) dropped 4.5%. With highly anticipated IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI in sight, investors likely opted to raise cash ahead of those offerings. Analysts claim this liquidity drain also contributed to Bitcoin’s recent weakness.

Source: X/dgt10011

Jeff Park, partner at ParaFi Capital and Bitwise advisor, argues that the AI sector is draining money from other investments as the market becomes a “hot ball of money” that everyone suddenly “has to own”. However, Park reminds that once this period of AI mania blows off, capital will eventually rotate back to Bitcoin as its discounted valuation works in its favor.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s weakness stems from AI sector hype, excessive confidence from bears poses a major risk once spot Bitcoin ETF inflows pick up or the fear surrounding a recent 32 BTC sale from Strategy (MSTR US) dissipates.

A rally back to $66,000 might seem unlikely at first glance, but a sudden short squeeze could quickly shift momentum in favor of the bulls.