Commercial Electricity Use Will Surpass Residential In 2027, As Price Surge Set To Continue: EIA

By Robert Wilson of UtilityDive

Commercial electricity consumption is likely to surpass residential use for the first time on record in 2027, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The commercial sector, which includes hyperscalers, bitcoin miners and cloud computing, is expected to see electricity sales grow 2.2% to about 1,530 billion kWh in 2026 — roughly the same as the residential sector — followed by 5.3% growth the following year, EIA said.

Demand from the residential sector, which has historically accounted for the largest share of U.S. electricity use, will remain largely flat over the next two years, growing about 0.5% in 2026 and 2027. Total U.S. electricity consumption in 2026 will be almost 4,250 billion kWh, up 1.3% from 2025, and is expected to grow 3.1% in 2027.

Meanwhile, U.S. residential electricity prices will continue to rise amid growing demand, particularly from the commercial sector, which includes data centers, the EIA said.

Residential customers will pay an average of 18.2 cents/kWh this year, “a nearly 5% increase from 2025, which is similar to the increase in U.S. prices between 2024 and 2025,” EIA estimated. “We expect residential prices to grow at a slightly lower rate of 2% next year.”

“Residential prices have been growing in all regions of the United States, and we expect this trend to continue,” EIA said. Areas along the East coast will experience the largest increases in residential prices, with average annual growth as high as 7% for the next two years.

“Electric utilities in these regions are citing various factors for rising electricity rates, including higher fuel prices for generation and expenses for bolstering the transmission grid against extreme weather and to accommodate rising power demand,” the short-term outlook said.

Industrial sales, the smallest of the three segments, are also rising, according to EIA. “We forecast industrial electricity consumption will grow by 1.0% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 to reach a total of 1,095 [billion] kWh next year,” the monthly report said. “Increases in electricity demand for both the commercial and industrial sectors is strongest in the West South Central region, driven by data center and manufacturing growth in Texas.”