Futures Rise, Oil Slides On Iran Ceasefire Optimism After Best Month For Stocks Since 2020

US equity futures are higher, set for a new all time high, as the rally that’s pushed Wall Street to record highs on strong megacap tech earnings continues, after the S&P posted its best monthly increase since November 2020. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3% (spiking moments ago on a report that Iran submitted its latest response to US amendments on the ceasefire agreement), while Nasdaq futures are modestly in the red and the Russell underperforms. Pre-market, AAPL is up 3% on healthy guidance and earnings beat even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.” NVDA and MSFT are 40bp higher, while AMZN is down 60bp. Headlines since yesterday’s close have been largely quiet, especially given the market holidays across most European and Asian markets. Bond yields dropped 1-2bp, and oil slipped after news that Iran had delivered its response to the latest US ceasefire amendment via Pakistani sources; the news pushed Brent down by about $1 to $110 and WTI dropped to session lows around $103; precious metals and aluminum are lower. The dollar was little changed having wrapped up its worst month since June, after a second intervention to by the BOJ/MOF in Japan pushed the yen sharply higher (although it has again given up most of its gains). Gold traded around $4,600 an ounce. Today’s economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed: Apple is up 3.8% after giving a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months” (Nvidia +0.4%, Microsoft +0.4%, Meta +0.3%, Tesla -0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.7%). 

• Amgen (AMGN) is down 1.6% after the drugmaker reported underwhelming sales of some of its newer products for the first quarter, with Baird calling the results a “mixed bag.”
• Cohu (COHU) falls 1.1% after the semiconductor manufacturing company reported adjusted earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate. However, analysts remain positive on its long-term growth prospects.
• Moderna Inc. (MRNA) jumps 6.7% after first-quarter sales beat expectations, as the struggling vaccine maker that’s faced resistance from the Trump administration has found new growth outside the US.
• Roblox (RBLX) tumbles 24% after the video-game company reported daily active users for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The company also lowered its forecast for full-year bookings, a key measure of sales, after implementing safety features restricting how kids, who make up a majority of its audience, can use the platform.
• Sandisk (SNDK) is down 6.2% after the computer hardware and storage company reported third-quarter results that were much stronger than expected and gave an outlook that was well above the consensus. Despite the upside in the report and forecast, analysts said the report may not have been strong enough to meet high investor expectations.
• Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) is down 21% after the biotech firm said it plans to continue the study of its experimental cancer drug, following a review by an independent committee. Barclays analysts say the optics of the new guidance pressured shares.
• Sunbelt Rentals (SUNB) is down 2.6% after JPMorgan cut the recommendation on the equipment rental company to underweight from neutral, citing an “increase in industry-wide freight rates and fuel costs and the expected outperformance of Specialty (which is lower margin vs. General Tool).”
• Twilio Inc. (TWLO) jumps 18% after the software company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also raised its revenue growth forecast for the year.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) rises 9.7% as the cloud-based software company is set to replace Coterra Energy in the S&P 500.
• Zeta Global (ZETA) is up 6.5% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Analysts are especially positive on the company’s Athena AI operating system.

In other corporate news, Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing. Western Digital shares fell in extended trading despite reporting better than expected results across key metrics. Expectations were high, with shares up more than 60% in April. Novo Nordisk’s obesity shot Wegovy helped people with alcoholism reduce their drinking in a controlled study of patients who sought help with their addiction. 

Stocks are set to start the month of May in the green after closing a volatile April at record highs, with the S&P 500 logging its strongest monthly gain since 2020. Apple, the fifth Mag 7 megacap to report in two days, delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for its third quarter, even as it warned that memory-chip costs will increase and that shortages of Mac computers will persist for “several months.”

Apple aside, it’s all about AI: according to Bloomberg, S&P 500 margin expansion is being entirely driven by AI stocks, and without those companies, margins would have contracted.  And AI stocks are cheap relative to history alongside much stronger fundamentals, with AI stocks expected to deliver 33.7% EPS growth from 2Q to 4Q 2026 — roughly 2.5x that of non-AI peers, writes Bloomberg analyst Nathaniel T Welnhofer. 

Alphabet’s 10% gain on Thursday added $421 billion to its market value, the second-biggest one-day jump in market cap add for any stock ever. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, rebutting concerns about missing internal targets, said the company is meeting objectives and sees “a vertical wall of demand” for its products. Elsewhere in AI, debt investors are showing signs of fatigue after $300 billion of deals that have spanned every corner of the credit market, with bankers having to work harder to sell deals by offering more incentives and higher compensation. 

“The latest US earnings season has been robust, which has helped prevent global markets from suffering big losses despite the impact of the Iran conflict,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Meanwhile, Goldman traders note that May is likely to see moderate tailwinds from corporate buybacks, while systematic strategies are more likely to become sellers of global stocks after a heavy re-leveraging.  S&P Dow Jones Indices has launched a consultation that could eventually speed up the entry of mega cap companies seeking to IPO into its indexes, including the S&P 500.

Fitch Ratings warned the US’s credit grade faces challenges due to a widening deficit that leaves its debt burden “far above” other nations that share its AA score. 

Oil held its second weekly gain as US President Donald Trump said he was sticking with a naval blockade of Iranian ports, elevating concerns the vital Strait of Hormuz would not reopen anytime soon. Brent for July rose above $111 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was above $105 — up 12% this week.

“Oil prices remaining above $110 per barrel though are a reminder of the stakes for the global economy and the fact that there looks no path to the Strait of Hormuz reopening in the near term,” AJ Bell’s Mould said.

Most European markets are closed for a public holiday; UK stocks dropped in thin holiday trading, led lower by NatWest on disappointing earnings and AstraZeneca on a regulatory setback. Meanwhile, water utilities fell after Citi downgraded United Utilities and Severn Trent on “limited absolute valuation upside.” Diageo rose on tariff relief hopes.  The FTSE 100 fell 0.5%, while Denmark’s OMX Copenhagen 25 Index was little changed, amid holidays for many other European markets. Here are the key stock movements this morning

• Diageo gained 1.6% after US President Donald Trump said he would be removing some Scotch tariffs following a visit from King Charles III.
• NatWest dropped as much as 4.2%, hitting a one-month low, as analysts looked past forecast-beating results to note that the UK lender’s adjusted profit had undershot expectations, while the improved income target had already been anticipated. Net interest income came in slightly below expectations.
• AstraZeneca slipped as much as 2.2% after the US Food and Drug Administration’s Oncology Drugs Advisory Committee voted against the drugmaker’s breast cancer medicine, known as camizestrant. Morgan Stanley noted the vote creates a “regulatory overhang and a dent to investor sentiment,” though the commercial impact is “relatively modest.”
• UK water utility stocks slide following a steep rally on Thursday as Citi downgrades United Utilities and Severn Trent due to “limited absolute valuation upside” on a 12-month view.

Asian stocks rose, poised to cap a fourth-straight weekly gain, buoyed by tech earnings as traders awaited more catalysts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.3% Friday, with key gauges in Japan, Australia and New Zealand closing in the green. All of the region’s other key markets were closed for holidays. The regional benchmark was on track for a weekly advance of 0.7%. Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei 225 tracked gains in US peers after results from major tech firms. Chip-equipment Tokyo Electron was among the biggest boosts to the regional gauge after a better-than-expected forecast. Next week’s highlights include rate decisions in Australia and Malaysia. Companies including HSBC, Toyota, Nintendo and Westpac will report results.

In FX, USD/JPY is little changed near 156.50 although that underplays another volatile session. The pair rose in Asia but fell abruptly during European morning hours, shedding ~150 pips in just a few minutes before recovering after a 2nd Japanese FX intervention. The swings are not as large as those observed on Thursday where Japan likely spent around $34.5 billion Thursday to prop up the yen, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts.

In rates, treasuries are steady over Asia, early London session with yields trading marginally cheaper on the day, as oil is set to hold a second weekly gain after President Trump said he was sticking with Iran naval blockade. US yields dropped by 1-2bps across the curve following news that Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators. US 10-year yields trade around 4.36%. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Gilts fall, with declines more pronounced at the short-end. UK two-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.48%.  Twelve names priced $38.3 billion Thursday, paying about 4.5 basis points in new issue concessions on deals that were 3.7 times oversubscribed. Weekly volumes past $62 billion so far exceed dealer forecasts of near $50 billion. Friday is expected to be quiet.

In commodities, oil remains key driver for Treasuries price action. July Brent traded near $112 a barrel, heading for a weekly gain of more than 6%, while West Texas Intermediate was near $106 — up more than 12% for the period. Precious metals fall. Bitcoin rises 1%.

US economic data calendar slate includes April manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 8am.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.1%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• FTSE 100 -0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.38%
• VIX +0.2 points at 17.1
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1192.06
• euro little changed at $1.1738
• WTI crude +0.6% at $105.75/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Iran delivered its latest response to US amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators: Al Jazeera
• Weeks of conflict have aggravated Iran’s dire economic problems, risking calamity after the war, but the Islamic Republic looks able to survive a standoff in the Gulf for now, despite a U.S. blockade that has cut off energy exports. With major fighting paused by an April 8 truce, Iran is locked in a stalemate with the U.S. and Israel, with talks for a lasting ceasefire stalled while Tehran keeps the Strait of Hormuz shut and Washington blockades Iranian Gulf ports. RTRS
• A U.S.-Iran ceasefire that began in early April has “terminated” hostilities between the two sides for the purposes of an approaching congressional war powers deadline, a senior official of President Donald Trump’s ‌administration said on Thursday. RTRS
• The US credit rating is under pressure from a widening deficit, with debt “far above” other AA peers, Fitch warned. It expects further fiscal deterioration, driven by tax cuts. BBG
• Huawei is set to capture the largest share of China’s AI chip market this year, with sales jumping by at least 60 per cent amid strong demand from Chinese companies seeking domestic alternatives to Nvidia. FT
• OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said the company sees a “vertical wall of demand,” after a WSJ report about missed internal goals weighed on AI-linked stocks earlier this week. She said growth may be constrained by limited computing capacity. BBG
• A growing camp of hard-liners believe Iran has to take the military initiative and start a shooting war again to send oil prices soaring higher and increase the pressure on Trump. They argue that the blockade goes beyond the sanctions Iran has faced down in the past and amounts to an act of war that must have a military response. WSJ
• S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC has launched a consultation that could speed up the entry of mega cap companies into its indexes, including the S&P 500. The proposed rule change would shorten the time a company needs to be public before being eligible to six months versus the current minimum of 12 months. If approved, the changes would apply to indexes including the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600, with any changes to be adopted prior to the market open on June 8.  BBG
• Chevron and Exxon beat estimates, offsetting supply and production losses from the Iran war. Shares of both firms rose premarket (CVX+1%, XOM +60 bps). BBG
• Anthropic is racing to close another fundraising round, asking investors to submit applications within the next 48 hours as the company looks to take in ~$50B at a valuation of ~$900B+ (Anthropic closed its last round in Feb at a ~$380B valuation). Tech Crunch
• US President Trump has signed the DHS funding bill.

Iran News

• US President Trump is expected to make a decision on the path forward [on Iran] in the coming days, NBC reported citing a US official.
• US President Trump said would not have approved enriched Uranium for Iran; needs guarantees Iran will not have a nuclear weapon ever. Hormuz blockade is 100% effective.
• A senior Trump administration official said that for War Power Resolution purposes, hostilities that began on February 28th have been terminated.
• Iranian Judiciary head said Iran does not accept negotiation based on imposition; adds Iran has never left the negotiating table, Iranian press reported.
• Iranian National Security Commission member Rezei said “we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy..the naval blockade is a continuation of the war.. we are not in a ceasefire situation now”, Mehr reported. Full post:”Iran cannot be besieged; We have different ways to export and import In a conversation with Mehr, Ebrahim Rezaei said: “The enemy has turned to our naval blockade after failing in the military war and direct confrontation, and we are currently in the second phase of the war with the enemy.” In other words, the naval blockade is a continuation of the war that the Americans have started against us. So, we are not in a ceasefire situation now. A member of the National Security Commission of the Majlis, stating that the Americans do not have the operational capacity to blockade Iran by sea, said: “Our only access route for transit is not through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.”.
• US CENTCOM Commander Cooper briefed President Trump for 45 minutes on new operational plans for potential strikes against Iran, Axios’ Ravid reported citing sources.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said that it is not responsible to expect a quick conclusion of the negotiations and that the other party has not used the opportunity provided by Iran’s proposal, must be ready for any eventuality. The US and Israeli regime are famous for breaking their promises and the biggest guarantee for not repeating the war is the power of Iran.
• Drone attack hits Iranian Kurdish opposition camp east of Iraq’s Erbil, according to Reuters, citing security sources. via vv.
• The defense sound heard over Tehran is related to countering micro-birds and reconnaissance drones, via Tasnim.
• Air defence sounds are being heard in some areas of Tehran but reasons are unclear, Mehr News reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newqsuawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded with decent gains, helped by the positivity seen stateside. The majority of markets are closed today for Labour Day. ASX 200 rebounded after 8 straight days of losses. Miners led gains while Energy underperformed following Thursday’s drop in oil prices. ANZ reported cash profit that beat estimates; however shares have slipped lower after it raised its coverage ratio by 4bps due to the heightened geopolitical risk. Nikkei 225 posted decent gains, despite the sudden JPY strength amid intervention talk. Tokyo Electron benefited following its positive Q4 results, in which net profit beat estimates.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s Top Diplomat Mimura said will not comment on FX.

Eurozone cash and derivatives are closed today in observance of Labour Day. FTSE 100 (-0.6%) is lower this morning, dragged lower by the likes of NatWest (-4.2%), AstraZeneca (-2%) and pressure across the mining names. Delving into the UK bank in a bit more detail, the Co. reported strong headline metrics and lifted its income guidance for the year, whilst reaffirming other components. Despite the upbeat Q1, shares find themselves in the red; some will point towards the 1.4% decline in interest income. As for AstraZeneca, shares have dropped after the US FDA voted against the co’s breast cancer drug.

Top European News

• UK M4 Money Supply MoM (Mar) M/M 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.6%).
• UK Net Lending to Individuals MoM (Mar) M/M 8B vs. Exp. 5.9B (Prev. 6.8B).
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) 1.895B (Prev. 1.935B).
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar) 63.53K vs. Exp. 60K (Prev. 62.58K).
• UK Mortgage Lending (Mar) 6.15B (Prev. 4.84B).
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Apr) 53.7 vs. Exp. 53.6 (Prev. 51.0).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices YoY (Apr) Y/Y 3.0% (Prev. 2.2%).
• UK Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (Apr) M/M 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 0.9%).

Trade/Tariffs

• Japanese PM Takaichi said she will be visiting Vietnam and Australia. “Moreover, through these visits to both countries, taking into account the current situation in the Middle East, I will confirm cooperation on strengthening supply chain resilience, including stable energy supply and critical minerals within the Asian region. I believe such initiatives are also important for procuring critical supplies such as crude oil and petroleum products in Japan.”.
• USTR Greer said he suggested a US-China Board of Trade in his meeting with Chinese VP He Lifeng.
• USTR Greer said the US will extend preferential treatment to other UK goods.

FX

• USD/JPY took another leg lower this morning, surpassing Thursday’s low of 155.55 to mark a session trough of 155.48.
• Thursday saw strong verbal intervention from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, then later comments from top FX official Mimura, which pushed the pair lower in excess of 2%. Later in the session on Thursday, Nikkei sources said a Japanese government official confirmed the intervention to Nikkei, but we are still awaiting official confirmation, with Mimura declining to comment on intervention speculation, and figures showing potential FX intervention due late May. Some desks noted the remarks/potential intervention on Thursday may have had a follow-through to the downside in Brent prices as Mimura’s “looking at markets on all fronts” could have been viewed as having cross-asset implications. However, there was no move in the Brent Jul’26 contract this morning.
• Though it is impossible to say whether intervention occurred in this morning’s 150pip+ move, 7:45 am BST (3:45 pm JST) marks the low-liquidity period and the final hour of the Tokyo trading session, a European holiday, and also month-end. Factors which provide a relatively low liquidity environment, which boost the effectiveness of intervention.
• In terms of the move this morning, USD/JPY fell 156 pips from 157.05 to a low of 155.48, half of the move has now been pared as participants continue to price the still low real rates in Japan, and the potential for energy prices to remain high, which MUFG says will see USD/JPY rebound quickly.
• DXY was resilient to JPY moves, with the index falling briefly below the 98.00 mark, then paring most of the move. DXY will likely attempt to return to 100 and 200 DMAs either side of 98.50, which it has mostly respected throughout the week.
• BoJ data for April 30th shows FX intervention of some JPY 5.4tln.

Fixed Income

• Fixed benchmarks are flat amid mass market closures with liquidity thin and the docket sparse.
• USTs in a narrow 110-17+ to 110-22+ range, awaiting Final Manufacturing PMI and then the ISM Manufacturing figure thereafter. Today’s docket also has Fed’s Miran; reminder, as Powell has indicated he will remain at the Fed once he is no longer Chair, Miran will likely vacate his spot for Warsh.
• Gilts gapped lower by 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.36 low, though comfortably above Thursday’s 85.90 contract base. No move to the Final Manufacturing PMI, which unsurprisingly points to marked price pressures and frontloading of purchase activity.
• Ahead, BoE Chief Economist Pill is due; Pill was the sole hawkish dissenter in April, and sees the risk of second round effects as being to the upside vs the three scenarios, calling for a “prompt but modest hike” to “help mitigate upside risks to price stability”.
• Japan sold JPY 250bln 10-year I/L JGBs: b/c 3.40x, Yield at the Lowest Accepted Price 0.578%.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 4.50% 2033 bond: b/c 3.56x, average yield 4.8608%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, the Trump administration is framing hostilities with Iran as “terminated” under the War Powers Resolution due to a ceasefire, allowing it to bypass the 60-day congressional approval requirement despite ongoing tensions and historically weak enforcement of the law. Trump’s stance remains inconsistent—he alternates between suggesting a deal with Iran may or may not be necessary while firmly maintaining that Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons—and he has indicated that Iran’s military capabilities are significantly degraded, though the ceasefire’s durability is uncertain. Meanwhile, CENTCOM has already presented detailed strike options, with a decision on next steps expected within days. Diplomatically, talks are stalled: Iran signals slow progress, internal disagreements are emerging within its leadership over negotiation strategy, and external actors like Israel anticipate a collapse in talks, potentially triggering escalation, including possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran, for its part, is preparing for “any eventuality,” adopting a defiant posture, reinforcing defences, and continuing limited military responses.
• Crude prices remain elevated with WTI Jun between USD 104.13-106.65/bbl and Brent July towards the middle of a USD 110.33-112.45/bbl range at the time of writing. Price action this morning has been fairly muted amid broad market closures in APAC and Europe, due to the Labour Day holiday. Unlike Thursday, oil was unreactive this morning to JPY strength. (See FX for details)
• Spot gold and silver are softer as higher crude prices keep the precious metals space pressured, with little action seen from a slide in the DXY amid a sudden surge in the JPY around 0745BST. Spot gold resides within yesterday’s USD 4,539-4,647.05/oz.
• Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper flat within a narrow USD 13,008.53-13,121.88/t range amid little impetus as Chinese markets were closed overnight and a large part of Europe is away.
• US President Trump’s mineral reserve reportedly plans to purchase rare earths from China.
• White House said presidential permit authorizes bridger pipeline expansion to construct, connect, operate, and maintain pipeline facilities at boundary at Phillips County, Montana, between US and Canada. Permitee granted permission to transport between the United States and Canada crude oil and petroleum products.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Apr F S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 54, prior 54
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Manufacturing, est. 53.2, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Apr ISM Prices Paid, est. 80.3, prior 78.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It should be quiet today, with many countries around the world on holiday, particularly in Europe. The UK is off on Monday so it should be a couple of days of low volume even as the war uncertainty drags on.

As it’s the start of the month, Henry will shortly release our regular performance review for April. It was another eventful month, as mounting fears about stagflation pushed many government bond yields to multi-year highs. However, equities had a much stronger time after their March slump, with the S&P 500 (+10.5% in total return terms) posting its best monthly performance since November 2020 when the vaccine news was released, ending the month at a new record high. And most notably, the Philly Semiconductor index (+38.4% total return) had its best month since February 2000, the month before the dot com bubble began to burst. For all the negativity around Europe of late, the Stoxx 600 (+5.6%) managed its best month since January 2025 while the MSCI EM index (+14.7%) had its best month since November 2022. Oil had a U-shaped performance, ending not far from where it started, but with Brent crude up over 25% from the mid-month lows. So a fascinating month. See the full review in your inboxes shortly.

Oil prices have continued to creep higher overnight, with no sign that the US and Iran are moving closer to a deal. Given the month-end, there’s been a contract roll, but if we stick with the July 2026 contract for consistency, Brent crude is up +1.07% this morning to $111.58/bbl. Moreover, Trump showed no sign of backing down, saying “Their economy is crashing, the blockade is incredible”, and “we’ll see how long they hold out.” Meanwhile, there’s been no sign of comprise from the Iranian side, with new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issuing a statement that Iran would maintain its missile and nuclear capabilities and suggesting that Iran would implement “new legal frameworks” over the Strait of Hormuz.

This morning in Asia, the yen has weakened -0.36%, after surging +2.44% against the US Dollar yesterday. There was no official word on whether an intervention had taken place, but Nikkei reported later in the day that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan conducted a yen-buying operation. And Bloomberg also reported overnight that an intervention had taken place. Those moves accelerated after Japan’s currency chief Atsushi Mimura said he was giving a “final warning” before taking action on FX. So if there was intervention, that final warning didn’t last very long. In turn, that pushed the yen to 156.59 per dollar by the close, strengthening from its level of 160.41 on Wednesday, when it hit its weakest closing level since July 2024.

Otherwise overnight, the risk-on tone has generally continued as May begins, although many indices are closed for a holiday. However, those that are open have generally risen, with the Nikkei (+0.60%) and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (+0.98%) both higher this morning, whilst futures on the S&P 500 (+0.23%) are pointing to further gains as well.

Markets also ended April on a stronger note yesterday, as a sharp intraday pullback for oil helped to ease fears about stagflation. In fact, Brent crude fell from an intraday high for this conflict of $126.41/bbl, all the way down to $114.01/bbl by the close. These moves may have been distorted by the impending end-of-month benchmark shift, but even for WTI we saw prices rise to a post-ceasefire high of $110.93/bbl intra-day before easing to $105.07/bbl by the close (-1.69% on the day). So relative to 24 hours ago, concerns about inflation have eased considerably, with markets pricing in a slightly more dovish path for central banks as well.

Those oil moves came as central banks sounded less hawkish in their decisions than many feared yesterday, which led to a decent sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the ECB held rates as expected, keeping their deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde did give several hints towards a June hike, saying “directionally, I know where we are heading” and acknowledging that rate hikes had been discussed yesterday. But she also offered some dovish counterarguments and didn’t paint a June hike as a fully done deal. This led markets to dial back their expectations for imminent tightening, with the number of hikes priced by year-end falling -10.6bps to 73bps. Our European economists’ main takeaway is that the data and events now need to disprove the case for a hike in June, but they see this leading to a “measured” tightening cycle rather than a “forceful or persistent” one. 

That backdrop meant that European bond yields fell back from their recent highs. So 10yr bund yields (-7.3bps) fell to 3.03%, down from their post-2011 high on Wednesday, and yields on 10yr OATs (-8.4bps) and BTPs (-9.8bps) also fell back. Moreover, that was particularly clear at the front end, with 2yr yields seeing even sharper declines in Germany (-10.0bps), France (-9.3bps) and Italy (-11.7bps). Otherwise, European equities made a decent recovery too, with the STOXX 600 (+1.38%) recovering after four consecutive declines.

For the Bank of England, it was a similar story yesterday, as they also held rates at 3.75% as expected, but didn’t sound in a rush to hike rates. The decision was an 8-1 vote, with chief economist Huw Pill dissenting for a 25bp rate hike. But otherwise, Governor Bailey said that they weren’t “giving some slightly clandestine message that interest rates are going to go up”. So yields fell back after the decision, with the 2yr gilt yield (-10.5bps) coming down to 4.45%, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-5.9bps) fell back to 5.01%. And as with the ECB, given markets had already priced material tightening for the rest of year, the reaction went in a more dovish direction, with the probability of a hike at the next meeting in June falling from 85% to 61%. So there was some contrast with the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday, which had been more hawkish than expected as three regional presidents dissented against the easing bias. Obviously the unfolding oil narrative of the day helped cement the moves as well.

This backdrop also meant equities put in a decent performance on both sides of the Atlantic. So the S&P 500 (+1.02%) rebounded after the last two days of losses, albeit with some weakness among tech stocks, with the Mag-7 (-0.41%) slipping as losses for Meta (-8.55%) and Microsoft (-3.93%) outweighed Alphabet’s (+9.96%) rally after their results the previous evening. After the close, we also had Apple’s results, whose shares rose around +2% after-hours after projecting stronger-than-expected sales growth for the current quarter (+14-17% vs +9% expected).

That equity recovery was supported by the latest batch of US data, which added to the theme of economic resiliency. For example, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969, coming in at just 189k in the week ending April 25 (vs. 212k expected). Separately, we also had the Q1 GDP print, which came in at an annualised rate of +2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected). But the so-called “core GDP” measure of real final sales to private domestic purchasers was slightly stronger at +2.5%.

Otherwise, we also had the PCE inflation data for March, which showed headline PCE at a monthly pace of +0.7%, with the year-on-year print moving up to +3.5%. The print was as expected, but significantly, it means that PCE inflation has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for five full years, which is something I looked at in my chart of the day yesterday (link here). Many thought we were in a permanent period of lower inflation back in the 2010s, but the last five years have seen US inflation consistently above target. As I show in the note, regimes have tended to last for long periods of time. Are we in the early stages of an above-target regime now? Or will we ultimately trend back to target in a reasonable period? My bias is for the former.

However yesterday was a day of relief and Treasury yields also fell back, with the 2yr yield (-7.8bps) falling to 3.87%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.9bps) fell to 4.37%. In large part that was helped by easing concerns around inflation as oil prices fell back. But we also saw Fed pricing shift in a slightly dovish direction as well, with futures for the December meeting going from 3bps of hikes on Wednesday to 3bps of cuts by yesterday’s close.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the ISM manufacturing for April, along with UK mortgage approvals for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.