Guy Fawkes 
Two Democrats just dropped a bill that could shake prediction markets to their core.
Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act on March 10. The goal is simple. Make it illegal to bet on wars, assassinations, and deaths.
Over $500 million was wagered on the timing of US military strikes against Iran alone. That is the number Levin cited. and it’s hard to ignore. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been quietly racking up hundreds of millions in volume on exactly this type of contract. DeFi prediction markets are in the crosshairs, too.
JUST IN:
U.S. lawmakers introduced the “DEATH BETS Act” to ban prediction markets that let traders bet on war, assassinations, or people dying. pic.twitter.com/UPyvHU5HQw
— SwanDesk (@SwanDesk) March 11, 2026
This one is worth watching closely.
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What the DEATH BETS Act Actually Says
This bill does not just slap a warning label on these markets. It goes straight into the Commodity Exchange Act and bans them by law.
Any CFTC-registered platform would be prohibited from listing contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death. That last one is new. The CFTC already had some authority over terrorism and assassination contracts. Adding “an individual’s death” as its own category is a meaningful expansion.
Here is why that matters. A regulatory rule can be reversed by the next administration. A law requires Congress to act. This is built to stick.
NEW: US LAWMAKERS MOVE TO BAN PREDICTION MARKETS TIED TO DEATHS OR WARS
Democratic lawmakers, Adam Schiff and Mike Levin have introduced legislation aimed at banning certain prediction market bets.
The bill targets contracts tied to war, death, and assassinations. Lawmakers… pic.twitter.com/BaDx93UwGg
— BSCN (@BSCNews) March 11, 2026
Schiff was blunt about it. Betting on war and death lets insiders profit off nonpublic information, threatens national security, and encourages violence.
Levin went further. He called these markets immoral and said platforms were renaming assassination bets as “regime change” predictions just to dodge existing rules.
If that framing holds up in Congress, the door closes fast.
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Why Prediction Markets Are Suddenly in the Crosshairs
The Iran contracts were not a one-off. Polymarket ran a contract on Khamenei’s removal that hit $54 million. Contracts on Maduro. On Ukrainian territory. These platforms became a live market for geopolitical intelligence with zero oversight.
(Source: Polymarket)
That is the bill’s sharpest argument. If an intelligence official knows a strike is coming 48 hours early, they place a bet and cash out. Nobody catches it. The CFTC has nothing close to the SEC’s insider trading infrastructure.
The Polymarket angle makes it messier. Trump Jr. joined their advisory board in early 2026. CFTC investigations into the platform reportedly stalled around the same time. Draw your own conclusions.
The bill targets registered platforms directly. DeFi protocols are not explicitly named. Regulators have heard, “but it is decentralized,” before. It never holds forever. Centralized platforms get hit first, then the pressure migrates out.
Levin admits the math is tough. Republicans control both chambers, and prediction markets have allies in Trump circles. This likely stalls in committee.
But it does not need to pass to matter. The CFTC is already rewriting the rules, and this bill forces them to move harder and faster. The bill may die, but the pressure behind it will not.
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The post Democrats Move to Ban Prediction Markets on War and Death: What It Means for DeFi appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
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