Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Prediction: “I Wouldn’t Buy BTC Not Even $1.”

Guy Fawkes 2026.03.12 3 min read

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, revealed his latest Bitcoin prediction: put down the buy button for now. Speaking on the Coin Stories podcast, the usually hyper-bullish trader admitted that if he had $1 to invest right now, he wouldn’t put it into Bitcoin. He is strictly in wait-and-see mode. Despite his Bitcoin price prediction of $250,000 later in this cycle, Hayes argues that the market lacks the fuel it needs to climb higher right now.

The hesitation stems from one specific source: the Federal Reserve. For Hayes, the “money printer” is the only signal that matters, and until it turns back on, he believes the risks outweigh the rewards.

Arthur Hayes And His Bitcoin Prediction: The Fed Controls BTC’s Throttle

To understand Hayes’s latest Bitcoin prediction, you have to ignore the charts for a moment and look at the engine room of the economy: Liquidity. Simply put, liquidity is the amount of cash and credit flowing through the financial system. When the Federal Reserve prints money (Quantitative Easing) or lowers interest rates, they flood the system with cash. This forces investors to buy risky assets like Bitcoin to beat inflation.

Hayes views macroeconomics as the primary driver of crypto prices. He separates the market environment into two distinct modes:

Aggressive Fed (Current State): Policy is tight. The government is not printing enough new money to debase the dollar significantly. Investors park cash in safer assets. Bitcoin starves for capital.
Soft Fed (The Pivot): The Fed cuts rates or prints money to fund government debt or wars. Dollar liquidity expands. Investors rush into scarce assets like Bitcoin.

We have seen Bitcoin and stocks stabilize when liquidity is neutral, but Hayes argues they cannot start a true parabolic run until the “liquidity spigot” opens up again.

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Hayes’s Position: Waiting For The Printer

Hayes isn’t bearish on Bitcoin’s long-term value; he is bearish on the current timing. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” he said. Hayes is explicitly waiting for the Federal Reserve to loosen its monetary policy.

His thesis connects geopolitical tension directly to money printing. “The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” Hayes explained. In his view, war is expensive, and the government eventually pays for it by expanding the money supply.

However, he warns that the market hasn’t reached that point yet. While many believe “war is good for Bitcoin,” Hayes corrects this: “Money printing is good for Bitcoin.” Until the printing actually starts, uncertainty rules the day.

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The Bear Case: The $60,000 Danger Zone

Here is the twist: before the money printer turns on, things could get ugly. Hayes warns that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could trigger a massive sell-off in risk assets. When fear spikes, investors don’t buy Bitcoin immediately: they sell everything to get cash.

Hayes points to a specific downside target. With Bitcoin trading around $69,200, he warns that a panic sell-off could push the price below the $60,000 level. This “could be sort of a big cascading of liquidations down,” he noted. If leveraged traders get wiped out, the price often overcorrects to the downside.

This aligns with broader market fears where geopolitical tensions often trigger a liquidity crunch before any recovery begins. Hayes is positioning himself to avoid catching a falling knife during that volatility.

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Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Prediction: “I Wouldn’t Buy BTC Not Even $1.”