Despite Crazy Revisions, Consumer Confidence Rebounds From January’s Doom

After Boomers and Gen X dragged The Conference Board Confidence measure down to eight month lows to end 2025, expectations were for a rebound to start 2026.

Instead, January was a bloodbath with all the cohorts tumbling. Today sees February’s data released with expectations for a rebound, particularly in expectations… and the consensus was right.

• The headline Consumer Confidence print rose from 84.5 (revised dramatically up to 89.0) to 91.2 (better than the 87.1 expected)

• Under the hood it was kind of crazy with the dismal Present Situation print for January of 113.7 dramatically revised up to 121.8, which meant the 120.0 print for February was actually a decline MoM (but better than expected).

• The Expectations sub-index rose from a revised 67.2 to 72.0 (also better than expected).

So, overall, confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat.

“Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February.”

With Expectations at their lowest since COVID…

Source: Bloomberg

The survey cutoff date was Feb. 17, before the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.

Finally, under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continued to accelerate…

Source: Bloomberg

Circling back to where we started, how exactly do you ‘revise’ consumer expectations (especially so dramatically?)