Goldman: Four Questions Investors Are Asking About Walmart

At the start of September, Goldman hosted its 32nd annual Global Retailing Conference, followed by last week’s technology forum. It’s been a packed first half of the month for Goldman analysts, who have been busy digesting comments from corporate executives and sharing key takeaways with clients on how business leaders see the evolving world.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane penned a note for clients about the four key questions investors had following Walmart’s appearances at its retail and technology conferences.

McShane noted that the mega-retailer is on track to deliver stronger-than-expected results in both the near term and the long term. She expects Walmart to sustain top-line growth of at least 4% while expanding operating income at a high-single- to low-double-digit pace.

She also highlighted that profitability in US e-commerce, which turned positive in the first quarter and doubled in the second, is being driven by lower delivery costs and growth in alternative revenue streams such as its marketplace, data ventures, media unit, and WMT+ subscription service.

McShane maintains a “Buy” rating on the stock, with a 12-month price target of $114.

Here are the four most critical questions investors were asking about Walmart following the conferences:

1. How is Walmart’s competitive positioning v. Amazon, especially when it comes to delivery?

Walmart, while acknowledging Amazon as a formidable competitor, is confident that their combination of value, its fresh and produce merchandise offering and its speed are key differentiators to their competitive position. Walmart can deliver to 94% of US households in 3 hours or less, with the company expecting that to expand to 95% by year-end. Looking at scheduled deliveries, which are a large part of Walmart’s business, about one-third are fast (3 hours or less), with 25% of fast deliveries now occurring in 30 minutes. Walmart has observed that when customers utilize fast delivery, their frequency starts to increase and their basket composition often changes; while many customers start with fresh food, after using fast delivery, they may also purchase general merchandise (i.e., fashion, home goods).

2. How is Walmart’s marketplace differentiated both for buyers and sellers?

A key differentiator for Walmart’s marketplace versus peers is its grocery offering, given that grocery items move the fastest and Walmart is the largest grocer in the US. To further differentiate themselves from others the company is now displaying select Marketplace seller items in stores, with a QR code to order the item through the Walmart app. These codes allow customers to access digital tools, services and an extended online assortment. Walmart is bringing the extended Marketplace aisle into stores, starting with a few items on display. Customers can purchase through the Walmart app and even have their items professionally installed. And finally for sellers, they offer two services; Walmart Fulfillment System and Data Ventures. When a seller joins the Walmart Fulfillment System, it helps lift a seller’s GMV 50% on average. Data ventures can provide sellers with valuable insights on their selling trends.

Per management, there is a symbiotic relationship between eCommerce and WMT’s higher margin businesses (i.e., advertising, data, membership, marketplace, fulfillment); as eCommerce grows, WMT has a greater opportunity to expand these higher margin businesses, and the company can reinvest those dollars into experience and price.

3. What consumer trends are Walmart seeing?

US consumer behavior has been generally consistent. In 2Q, WMT saw ongoing share gains across key categories and all income cohorts, with upper income households contributing the largest gains. The company is seeing strong demand from middle to upper income consumers, while the middle to lower income has experienced a bit of stress, calling out a behavioral change around items with higher costs due to tariffs. That said, consumers have held up well, and WMT expects to see similar trends for the balance of the year. In terms of quarter-to-date trends, WMT started this quarter with similar strength on the top line, noting that 2Q trends are extending into 3Q.

Insights from HundredX

We supplement our work with data from HundredX, a mission-based data and insights company that takes an innovative approach to monitoring consumer perceptions and gathering consumer feedback to understand trends across 80+ industries and 3,000+ brands. HundredX analyzes collective opinions of everyday customers and evaluates how their priorities influence purchasing decisions and attitudes toward businesses and brands.

4. How is Walmart thinking about price in 2H?

In the US, inflation is in the +LSD range, following price increases in food categories for multiple years now. Looking to general merchandise, prices went up as supply chains were stretched after the pandemic, which was followed by a decline in prices. In the current tariff environment, WMT has seen a gradual increase in cost levels in general merchandise, leading to single-digit inflation. Per management, the elasticity response has been better than expected, noting that when prices go up, units go down correspondingly, but consumers move from one item or category to another as prices change. As of the end of July, about one-third of WMT’s assortment would have had a price change, and by the time of 1Q26, it is expected be the full base. When tariffs became a possibility, WMT started value engineering its 3Q/4Q assortment, taking out costs and holding prices when possible. Per management, WMT’s price gaps remain consistent, noting that the company made investments a few years ago to establish a position and has maintained that. Looking at the GS grocery pricing survey (ran by Leah Jordan), price gaps for WMT widened in August to -13.6%, versus an average of -11.9% for the last 12 months indicating to us that WMT is focused on providing more value through food in order to keep overall prices low for the consumer and take more share.