UBS Finds iPhone Demand “Fizzled” In June, Expects Weak Momentum Ahead of September Launch

Apple is set to report 3Q25 earnings next Thursday, with investor focus on iPhone performance, services growth, and progress on Apple Intelligence. UBS analysts flagged Monday that “iPhone demand fizzled” in June, following a front-loaded sales surge linked to tariff fears earlier in the quarter. 

“Following two strong well above seasonal months driven by fears of a potential iPhone price increase related to broad based tariffs, we estimate iPhone sell-through in the month of June declined 18% YoY as demand fizzled,” a team of UBS analysts led by David Vogt wrote in a note to clients on Monday. 

June iPhone demand waned, but FX tailwind and April/May pull-in offset near-term downside. 

Here’s the summary for June: 

• iPhone demand fell 18% YoY in June, following front-loaded sales in April/May amid tariff fears.

• Still, total iPhone units for the quarter rose 3.4% YoY to 45M (up from 43.5M estimate).

• FX impact flipped to a tailwind, helping Apple beat revenue expectations.

“As such, we slightly raise our June quarter estimates but lower Sept given likely iPhone softness, below seasonal, given the prior pull-in,” Vogt said. 

• June iPhone revenue raised to $41.2B (+5.4% YoY); EPS upgraded to $1.46 (vs. prior $1.40).

September Quarter Outlook:

• iPhone demand likely to remain below seasonal trends due to prior pull-forward.

• iPhone unit forecast cut to 50M (from 52M); revenue lowered to $46.0B (from $47.7B).

• September EPS trimmed to $1.64 (from $1.68).

Vogt expects FY26 EPS estimates to trend lower:

The pull-in of iPhone units in April and May likely has a lingering impact on iPhone demand into the launch of the iPhone 17 in our view. As such, our analysis indicates iPhone demand in the Dec-25 quarter (fiscal Q1 of FY26), and the next several quarters is likely to be muted as investors await a form factor change in the fall of 2026. Therefore, we forecast the iPhone business to be slightly up in FY26 vs the VA Cons embedding mid-single digit revenue growth. As such, even before factoring financial risk from a change in the economic relationship with Google, we expect consensus revenue and EPS estimates to continue to trend lower for fiscal 2026.

iPhone demand waning.

The analysts did not change their 12-month price target of $210.

UBS’s warning highlights Apple’s soft iPhone sales trend this summer and may point to lackluster demand for the next iPhone, set to launch in September.