UFC 315 mailbag: How long will Jack Della Maddalena reign at welterweight?

UFC 315 is in the books, and we have a new welterweight champion.

On Saturday, Jack Della Maddalena scored the biggest win of his career, putting on a masterful performance to take a unanimous decision over Belal Muhammad and claim the welterweight title.

Where does “JDM” go from here, and how long will he reign? What about the flyweight title picture after Valentina Shevchenko stifled Manon Fiorot? And is Jose Aldo really done? Let’s dive into this week’s questions.

Jack Della Maddalena — champion

How do you feel Jack Della Maddalena’s title reign will go?

Well, I guess that largely depends on how his first fight goes, and I’m 50/50 on that one.

Islam Makhachev is going to get the first shot at JDM, and I have no idea who wins that one. My early instinct favors Makhachev because he’s the best fighter on the planet, and that counts for a lot. Also, I think Makhachev is an all-around better fighter than Muhammad, and Muhammad fought JDM close, so Makhachev should, theoretically, do better. But on the other side of things, JDM is still improving from fight to fight, showed vastly better anti-wrestling than he ever had previously, and has a dangerous skillset for Makhachev. So I’m not betting the house on Makahchev.

The struggle for JDM, though, is that even if he bets Makhachev, there’s no reprieve. Welterweight is full of incredible rising talents, and Della Maddalena will have to go from Islam to Shavkat Rakhmonov or Ian Machado Garry or Sean Brady or Joaquin Buckley. And then there are guys like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates coming down the line. The 170 title picture is a shark tank right now, and so even if JDM can swim for a while, I won’t be picking anyone to clear through that murderer’s row.

Title pictures

Can you dive into the mess that Jack Della Maddalena’s win left at 170 and 155? What do Shavkat, Brady, Belal, and Buckley do now while Islam gets the shot? And the 155 belt will not be defended until 2026 most likely.

Not a mess at all. It’s actually broken out pretty cleanly now, though perhaps not optimally for some parties.

Islam faces JDM for the welterweight belt later this year — either when the UFC goes back to Australia in the fall, or Abu Dhabi. Because he vacated the belt, Charles Oliveira and Ilia Topuria are squaring off for the lightweight belt at UFC 317. I’ll go ahead and guess that Arman Tsarukyan will fight Justin Gaethje sometime soon for a shot at the winner of that one.

As for welterweight, Garry and Brady are probably locked in for a scrap now, and the winner of Buckley vs. Kamaru Usman gets Belal next. The only real question is Shavkat, but my guess is Shavkat sits cageside for the Islam vs. JDM fight, and faces the winner of that early next year.

Unless, of course, the UFC chooses chaos. If Topuria beats Oliveira, and Makhachev beats Della Maddalena, I’m certain people will be even more psychotically rabid for that potential fight than ever. And if the UFC signs some new TV deal, what better way to make a splash than Makhachev vs. Topuria for the welterweight title sometime next year? I’m not saying this will happen, I’m just saying it’s in play now. And while that would be WILDLY unfair to a whole host of people, something tells me most fans won’t care about that.

Women’s flyweight

Where does Alexa Grasso go from here? I guess her championship was a fluke.

Also, Silva has a real chance of dethroning Shevchenko. Is she the future of the 125 division?

Oof, talk about the biggest loser on Saturday. Alexa Grasso is now in career purgatory, and looking like the crowning achievement of her career will go down as an aberration. Brutal turn of events for Grasso.

Let’s start by saying Grasso’s win over Shevchenko wasn’t a fluke, but it seems clear now that it wasn’t the most likely outcome. If they fight 10 times, Shevchenko wins more than half of them. But Grasso was prepared on the night that it mattered and found a way to win. That’s commendable.

It also illustrates my oft-repeated point that defending a title over and over again is the hardest thing to do in MMA. Because every time out, you are getting the very best shot from someone who has spent their entire life preparing for this fight. One mistake, one slip, and it’s all gone.

As for where Grasso goes, there’s nowhere to go. She probably can’t make 115, and she’d be very undersized at 135, meaning she’s stuck at flyweight. Only now there’s a crop of up-and-comers, which means she’s probably about to be the launching pad for future title aspirants.

As for Silva, yes, she is probably the future at flyweight. She looked fantastic on Saturday, and while I won’t go so far as to say she’d beat Shevchenko if they fought next, she certainly could. I believe Silva and Erin Blanchfield are destined for a trilogy of flyweight title fights in the coming years.

But for now, it’s pretty obviously about to be Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili next. It’s a matchup of two of the four greatest female fighters of all-time. You have to do that next.

Jose Aldo retirement

Do you think Aldo is retiring for real?

I do not.

After losing a *cough* garbage *cough* decision to Aiemann Zahabi on Saturday, Jose Aldo said that was probably his last time in the octagon. The UFC Hall of Famer and featherweight GOAT later doubled down on this, saying it “may have been my last time inside the octagon.” And to me, that tells us what we need to know. If he were committed, it wouldn’t be “may.”

This is certainly a bit of armchair psychology, but I think Aldo was just frustrated this week. It’s been a gripe I’ve repeated several times, but it’s hard to overstate how badly the UFC has managed this final run of his. Sure, Jonathan Martinez in Rio is at least explicable, but then booking Aldo against Mario Bautista and Zahabi was just senseless. These aren’t big names, which undoubtedly makes it harder to care about facing them. His candid admission that his weight cut failed because he couldn’t get past it mentally, to me, reads like a man who couldn’t dial in to fight some random dude. Because why would he? These aren’t legendary names or legacy fights, just some dudes. It’s hard for me to think he wouldn’t be more locked in if the fight was a big-name, legacy matchup. And, of course, to top it all off, his last two losses were bad decisions.

I think after taking some time to reflect, Aldo is going to realize he’s not done fighting; he’s just done fighting meaningless scraps. But if the UFC comes to Jose in a few months and says, “We’re going to Rio this fall, you vs. Patricio Pitbull, you interested?” I think Aldo is changing his tune.

At least, I hope so.

Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer all the good ones! It doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.

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