100 Day Mark: Iran Threatens Renewed Attacks On US-Israeli Bases, Citing IDF Escalation In Lebanon

Summary

• Sunday is day 100 since President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.
• Ghalibaf warns after IDF escalation in Lebanon: US & Israeli bases, assets in region are ‘legitimate targets’.
• Talks stuck on unfreezing assets: “Twenty-four billion dollars is not much for America if he wants to reach an agreement with Iran,” Iranian Gen. Mohsen Rezaei told CNN. “This is our own, not America’s money.”
• Defying Washington, Iran has been collecting $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz (Fars).

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US, Israeli Bases are ‘Legitimate Targets’: Iran Issues Fresh Threat

On Sunday Tehran ramped up its threats to renew ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel and America’s Gulf allies, describing that the Israeli military’s ongoing deadly attacks on Lebanon could obliterate the extended ceasefire with the US

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced on X that the ongoing American naval blockade against the Islamic Republic, with Washington having given a green light to Israel for its attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon, turns both countries’ bases and assets in the region into “legitimate targets.” The last days even saw a Lebanese general and other officers killed by IDF airstrike in south Lebanon.

“They neither abide by a ceasefire nor believe in negotiations,” Ghalibaf wrote.

Below is the latest Bloomberg summary on where stalled negotiations stand… to be expected it cites “little progress”:

“The US and Iran appear to be making little progress toward an interim deal to end the war Washington and Israel began 100 days ago, as fresh attacks pile pressure on a fragile ceasefire,” Bloomberg writes, and continues:

• The past week saw the worst flare-up in tensions since the truce started around April 8.
• Negotiations between Washington and Tehran are bogged down over the fate of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian assets and a parallel conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• US Central Command said early Sunday it downed two Iranian attack drones that threatened international maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway crucial to global energy exports that’s also been at the heart of discussions.
• On Friday, six ballistic missiles fired at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted and another failed to reach their intended target, hours after four unmanned craft headed to Hormuz were shot down, Central Command said. The US struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island, it added.

Talks Stuck on Unfreezing Iran’s Assets

The U.S. and Iran remain stuck in preliminary talks to end the war, with the main obstacle being Tehran’s demand for access to billions of dollars in frozen assets and the Trump administration’s refusal to provide upfront cash or broader sanctions relief. Tehran is seeking about $12 billion upfront and $24 billion during a proposed 60-day negotiation window.

“Twenty-four billion dollars is not much for America if he wants to reach an agreement with Iran,” Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior adviser to Iran’s top official, told CNN on Friday. “This is our own, not America’s money.”

For the Trump administration, releasing frozen funds for Tehran is optically displeasing because the president spent years blasting the Obama administration over the $1.7 billion Iran payment tied to the 2015 nuclear deal, and later criticized the Biden administration’s move to allow Iran access to $6 billion in assets during a prisoner swap.

The U.S. government estimates that Tehran has $100 billion in inaccessible assets, mostly oil revenue trapped abroad, including funds in China, Qatar, Oman, and Iraq.

Iran FM Complains of ‘Moving Goal Posts’

On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei spoke with CNN’s senior international correspondent Frederik Pleitgen about the ongoing negotiations with the U.S.

Baghaei stated, “The main problem of negotiating with this administration is that you have to face so many changing positions, moving the goal posts, different statements, contradictory remarks by different officials, so it makes the whole process very cumbersome.”

He outlined one of the main problems is that “the Americans must understand that they have to recognize Iran’s rights,” including its right to peaceful nuclear enrichment under the international non-proliferation treaty.

“At the same time, when they are talking about our blocked assets, they’re not going to give us any concession,” he said. CNN reported earlier on Sunday that the US plans to allow Iranian assets to be used for rebuilding projects in Gulf countries impacted by the war, according to a source close to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Baghaei added that the US must “simply stop their sanctions” and “need to let Iranian assets be released and be available for the Iranians.”

Iran Implements Toll System as US Balks

Beyond US-Iran talks, IRGC-linked Fars News reports that Iran has been collecting $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Fars said the payments are deposited into Iran’s treasury under the budget law and directed toward designated spending areas. Some payments are reportedly settled not in cash but in USDT/Tether or through barter arrangements.

Top Overnight Headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Conflict Flashpoints

• US Central Command shot down two Iranian attack drones over the Strait of Hormuz early Sunday that threatened international maritime traffic
• US forces intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones in the Persian Gulf late Friday and responded with attacks on radar sites in Iran
• Six ballistic missiles fired by Iran at Bahrain and Kuwait were intercepted, with a seventh not reaching its intended target
• US attacked Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island early Saturday
• Iran condemned US attack on its radar and coastal surveillance facilities as a clear violation of the April 8 ceasefire

Peace Negotiations Status

• The US and Iran appear to be making little progress toward an interim deal to end the war 100 days after it began
• Negotiations are bogged down over the fate of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets
• Pakistan’s interior minister was in Tehran on Sunday in a fresh bid to restart negotiations between Iran and the US
• Iran’s Baghaei said the US needs to let Iranian assets be released and must stop their sanctions
• The Trump administration is seeking to steer Iranian assets toward helping US allies in the Persian Gulf rebuild from damage inflicted by Tehran

War Damage and Infrastructure

• About 7,000 megawatts of Iran’s power-generation capacity was damaged in the war, with some 2,500 megawatts restored to service so far
• Despite 4,000 megawatts of damaged power plant capacity remaining offline, there are currently no plans to implement planned blackouts this summer
• Kuwait’s airspace was temporarily closed for two hours early Saturday as a precautionary measure due to Iranian missile and drone attacks

Economic Impact

• Italy extended a fuel tax cut until July 3, cutting pump prices by €0.05 per liter for diesel while keeping it unchanged for unleaded fuel
• India raised prices of domestic cooking gas for the second time since the Iran war started, with a 14.2-kilogram LPG cylinder increasing by 29 rupees
• Container shipping spot rates from Asia to northern Europe rose 27% to $3,649 as of Friday, while rates to the US West Coast increased 20% to $3,933
• Crude oil remains below $100 a barrel despite the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked for over three months, defying forecasts for prices as high as $200

Previous US-Iran Wrap

• US Intercepted Fresh Iranian Ballistic Missile Attacks Overnight As Tehran Blasts ‘Ceasefire Violations’

Institutional Market commentary:

• Goldman analyst Johann Cohen: Markets appeared to suffer from headline fatigue, alongside fading expectations of any near-term agreement between the US and Iran.
• UBS analyst Zeynep Akkok: European equities are resilient, with SX5E trading off earlier lows and price action is largely unchanged into the weekend as markets pause after recent moves. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations, with US President Trump flagging talks are in their final stages, but the continued lack of tangible progress caps upside. The tone remains constructive, but increasingly conditional on delivery.
• Goldman analyst Chris Hussey: But as we saw back in 2021, global supply chain shortages are plentiful. The prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is still cutting off about 10% of the world’s oil supply with a bigger impact on things like jet fuel, diesel, and aluminum.

Global Supply Chain:

• Alarming Supply-Chain Stress Sends Transport Cost Soaring, Fueling Inflation Fears
• UBS Reactivates Supply-Chain Stress Watch After Detecting Alarmingly Rapid Deterioration

Energy Market:

• Goldman Explains Why Oil Refuses To Rise Despite Continued Hormuz Closure
• Oil Prices Hold Gains As Gasoline Stocks Hit 12 Year Lows, Cushing ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom