Trump Says US “Hammering Iran’s Ability To Threaten Shipping”, Warns Xi Summit Could Slip If Beijing Bails

Summary:

• Trump reiterates military campaign continuing in full force, main efforts to Iran’s threat to shipping

• Trump presses for multinational Hormuz escort coalition as allies hesitate; Bessent says US allowing limited Iranian, Chinese, and Indian tanker transits “for now” to stabilize global supply.

• Bessent downplays link to Trump-Xi summit, calling any potential delay “logistical” due to Iran war coordination needs.

• Trump floated delaying March 31–April 2 Beijing meeting unless China helps reopen Strait fully, citing Beijing’s heavy reliance on Gulf oil.

• Europe reluctant to join Hormuz operation, Germany outright rejects it alongside Italy and Greece: Trump warned of a “very bad” future for NATO if allies don’t help reopen the strait. UK also says it won’t be ‘NATO-led’.

• Iran rejects ceasefire, vows prolonged defense; selective Hormuz policy continues, with traffic still down 70-90% and only “friendly” vessels passing safely.

• Gulf energy infrastructure under ongoing attack; regional proxies (Houthis, others) threaten further disruptions to bypass routes.

* * *

Trump says US “Hammering Iran” to Ease Shipping Concerns

President Trump has provided an update on the ongoing U.S. military campaign against Iran, describing it as continuing in full force over the past several days.

“They have been literally obliterated … their leaders are gone”: President Donald Trump discusses the war in Iran and the Middle East and says the U.S. and Israel are “doing what should have been done many years ago.” More: https://t.co/w1oXVmv975 pic.twitter.com/cOs3scdVqv

— NewsNation (@NewsNation) March 16, 2026

He claimed significant successes, including striking more than 7,000 targets across Iran, decimating the country’s anti-aircraft equipment, and achieving a 95% reduction in Iran’s drone attack capabilities.

Trump emphasized that Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing plants have been heavily targeted, leaving the country with few missiles remaining and severely hampered ability to produce more: “hammering Iran’s ability to threaten shipping.”

Trump highlighted specific actions against Iran’s naval and strategic assets, noting the destruction of more than 30 mine-laying ships and strikes on Kharg Island – described as largely destroyed except for the oil pipes area.

He warned that with one simple order, the remaining oil infrastructure there could be eliminated, underscoring efforts to undermine Iran’s capacity to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 

He expressed uncertainty about whether mines have already been deployed in the strait and strongly urged other nations, including China and Japan, to assist in securing the waterway, noting that some countries have shown little enthusiasm for helping.

These comments reflect Trump’s portrayal of a highly effective and intensifying operation amid the broader U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, while shifting some responsibility for regional stability to international partners.

Hormuz ‘Selected Disruption’

The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis remain in a tense selective-disruption phase rather than full closure, with Brent crude pulling back today (around $102 after earlier spikes) as markets digest weekend strikes and fresh US comments. The US precision bombing on Kharg Island hit only military assets (mines, missiles, air defenses) – leaving the oil export terminal (up to 90% of Iran’s loadings) untouched and operational. As Rabobank notes, “Trump was at pains to be clear that oil infrastructure was not targeted, but the implicit threat that it could be is an unsubtle one,” with Trump later joking about further strikes “just for fun.”

Tanker crossings via the Hormuz with AIS transponders. Now we’ve reported that some tankers have been turning off their transponders to go stealth through the waterway. 

Latest Bloomberg ship-tracking data shows the Strait, on either side, is a massive parking lot of tankers. This could take weeks, if not longer, to unclog.

The USS Tripoli (light carrier with ~2,500 Marines and F-35Bs) has been redeployed to the Persian Gulf, fueling speculation about potential boots-on-ground roles (securing Kharg or clearing northern approaches), which Rabobank flags as a “major escalation.” Limited Iranian attacks hit US-aligned Gulf oil assets over the weekend, and Fujairah port saw fresh strikes today. Iran’s selective policy holds: traffic is still down 70-90%, but “friendly”/neutral vessels (Iranian, Chinese, Indian, Pakistani) continue limited transits. The standout today remains the Pakistan National Shipping Corp tanker Karachi (Abu Dhabi crude) safely crossing with full AIS active — the clearest non-Iranian success yet.

Diplomacy & China

On the diplomatic front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that the US is deliberately “allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz” and is “fine” with some Indian and Chinese ships moving through “for now… to supply the rest of the world.” He highlighted “more and more of the fuel ships start[ing] to go through” and a possible “natural opening” the Iranians are permitting – a tactical concession to stabilize global supply while full escorts remain “militarily” off the table for now.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz:

“The Iranian ships have been getting out already, and we’ve let that happen to supply the rest of the world. We’ve seen Indian ships go out now… we also believe some Chinese ships have gone out” pic.twitter.com/QswYbQDh3m

— HOT SPOT (@HotSpotHotSpot) March 16, 2026

Bessent said crude oil prices should fall “much lower” than $80 per barrel after the war is over, adding that when the war is over, the “world will be safer and we will be better supplied.” 

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇮🇷 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:

“Which is more? If oil spiked to $150 but Putin was getting 70% of that, or oil stays at $95 to $100? Where is he getting more money? If it spikes to $150. So roughly his coffers are unchanged. In terms of the Russian Federation, it… pic.twitter.com/MN0iWL2aCU

— HOT SPOT (@HotSpotHotSpot) March 16, 2026

Some Hormuz context:

Pre-war Strait of Hormuz flow (crude + products): ~20m b/d.

My updated flow assumptions:

Iran: ~1.2m b/d (SoH)
UAE: ~1.0m b/d (Fujairah above pre-war)
KSA: ~4.0m b/d (Yanbu above pre-war)
Plus ~0.5m b/d (SoH tankers)
Plus >1.0m b/d IEA oil emergency release
Plus ~2.0m…

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 16, 2026

De-Escalation?

Glimmers of de-escalation persist, per Rabobank: Hamas (an Iranian proxy) called for Iran to cease attacks on neighbors (speculated as an off-ramp signal), Iran struck passage deals with India/Bangladesh, and FM comments framed the strait as “not closed to anyone other than the US, Israel and their allies.” Yet counters are loud – Houthis threaten Red Sea escalation (risking Saudi’s 5-7 mn bbl/day bypass pipeline), Trump rebuffs ceasefire (Iran demands US withdrawal + reparations), and prediction markets price ceasefire odds before month-end at just 14%. The WSJ reports the US is forming an international naval escort coalition, with Trump demanding “about seven” countries help.

That said, by the looks of it most of Europe wants to avoid what’s looking like a recipe for another quagmire in the Middle East. Ironically, Iran is bordered by two countries which were subject of over two decades of US-led war and occupation.

For example, after Italy had earlier made very clear it will have no involvement, Al Jazeera reports:

The ⁠war ⁠in Iran has nothing to do with NATO, ⁠a German government spokesperson says, adding that Germany ‌would not take part in the war nor in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open through ⁠military means.

“As long ⁠as this war continues, there will be no participation, ⁠not even in ⁠any effort ⁠to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military ‌means,” the spokesperson said. Greece ⁠also will not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said.

And Britain too while signaling openness says it won’t be NATO-led:

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday Britain would not be drawn into a wider war in Iran but would work with allies on a “viable collective plan” to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, though he acknowledged that would not be a simple task.

…Starmer told a press conference that reopening the strait was the only way to stabilize energy markets, and that he was talking to allies in Europe, the Gulf and the U.S. on a plan to secure freedom of navigation. He said it would not be a NATO-led mission.

The dominant pressure point is US-China leverage. Rabobank nails it: “Trump wants Hormuz open again. Xi wants guarantees that Gulf oil will continue to flow to Chinese refineries, Chinese industrial producers will have markets to sell to, and Chinese consumers will have food to import.” Speaking with FT on Sunday, Trump floated delaying the March 31–April 2 Beijing summit unless China helps reopen the strait, paraphrasing Connally: “it’s our war, but it’s your problem.” Bessent walked this back today as purely “logistical” (Trump may need to stay in DC for war coordination), not direct pressure — but the linkage and China’s heavy Gulf-oil dependence remain crystal clear. For Xi, the summit could become the moment Beijing quietly directs Tehran to ease restrictions… or risk Kharg-style escalation hammering China’s import-dependent industrial economy.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment of hardliner Mohsen Rezaei as military adviser adds hawkish continuity on the Iranian side. Overall, markets see a bullish crude tone from risks but “glimmers” of hope; the situation stays highly fluid — watch for coalition announcements, next tanker flows, or any Iranian response in the coming hours.

Polymarket odds on whether “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?” stand at around 14% as of 10:30 ET.

More Strait News

Tanker traffic on the key shipping lane in the Strait remains paralyzed. Last week, tankers began broadcasting “Chinese” on AIS as one way to transit the waterway.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported earlier that a Pakistan-flagged Aframax called “Karachi” hugged the Iranian coast in the Strait unscathed. It sailed from Fujairah in the UAE last month and now has a port call in Pakistan, according to ship-tracking data.

First non-Iranian cargo transits Strait of Hormuz with AIS on

The Aframax tanker Karachi, carrying Abu Dhabi’s Das crude, has become the first non-Iranian cargo to transit the chokepoint while broadcasting its AIS signal, suggesting that select shipments may be receiving… pic.twitter.com/Q6j6W3Cxz3

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) March 16, 2026

Overnight, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned bulk carrier transited the waterway, adding to signs that the chokepoint may be unclogging.

The Star Bulk bulker Star Gwyenth bolted and made the run though the Strait and out.

She is Marshall Is-flagged but US owned. pic.twitter.com/2eQ7Lwqh17

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 16, 2026

President Trump stated earlier that the “war will end soon.”

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol commented on the 32-nation emergency SPR dump and how it has begun to have a “calming” effect on energy markets to begin the week:

*BIROL SAYS IEA’S QUICK ACTION HAD `CALMING’ IMPACT ON MARKETS https://t.co/JwwBiy9YzG

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 16, 2026

Iran’s Kharg Island export hub is a major focus for us, and what happens next, including what the Trump administration decides to do with it, remains in focus.

Rabobank analysts offered their take on Hormuz events:

The Strait of Hormuz stays under selective Iranian disruption rather than full closure. Traffic is down 70-90%, but vessels tied to “friendly” or neutral countries — especially China, Pakistan, India, and Turkey — continue limited transits.

Hormuz is all about transit flows at the moment, with some unclogging clearly underway and energy markets moving lower in direct response. The key question now is whether this is sustainable, and whether China joins Trump’s naval coalition to fully reopen the Strait (read here). 

EARLIER…

President Trump and his top officials spent the weekend on the one hand touting the Iran campaign a decisive military win and supposed success, while on the other racing to assemble a naval coalition to force open Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, all the while imploring other countries for help. Europe appears deeply reluctant, with some key NATO countries already slamming the door on this prospect.

“As far as I’m concerned, we have essentially defeated Iran,” President Trump said in some of latest remarks aboard Air Force One. “They want to negotiate badly, as they should, but I don’t think they’re ready to do what they have to do… We will finish the job,” he claimed.

Ceasefire Rejected

But then on Monday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected calls for a ceasefire, insisting Tehran intends to impose steep and bloody costs on the aggressors. “The reason we say we do not want a ceasefire is not because we are seeking war, but because this time this war must end in such a way that our enemies never again think of repeating these attacks,” Araghchi said at a press conference.

“I think they have already learned a good lesson and understood what kind of nation they are dealing with.” He also dismissed reports that Iran had quietly sought negotiations: “As we have said many times and I reiterated last night in an interview with an American network, we have sent no messages and do not request a ceasefire.”

Still, Trump is pressing forward on plans for NATO to send allied ships. According to US officials cited in The Wall Street Journal, there are plans for as soon as this week to announce that multiple countries have agreed to join a coalition escorting ships through the strait. All of this, and especially a timeline, still seems up in the air.

And separately per Axios, the White House is simultaneously considering the far more aggressive option of seizing Iran’s main oil export hub on Kharg Island, after much of it has been subject of heavy US bombing, which started overnight Friday, but reportedly left oil terminals and vital export infrastructure in place.

Boots on the Ground

There remains widespread speculation that this is what the multi-thousand strong Marine Expeditionary Force currently en route is all about, raising the states even higher.

A direct Kharg Island seizure would require American boots on the ground –  already as Iran’s retaliatory blockade of the narrow strait has sent oil and gas prices climbing as a major share of global crude supply remains effectively frozen.

Allies on the Sidelines

Trump on NATO and Iran:

Whether we get support or not, but I can say this — and I said it to them — we will remember. pic.twitter.com/uki36COerk

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

This is apparently what’s behind Trump’s growing urgency – and some might day desperation – for allies to step up, with the US president having told European leaders there could be a “very bad” future for NATO if member states fail to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times.

Military Attacks

Iran meanwhile continues to send missile and drones on America’s gulf allies and energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia saying it intercepted 61 drones over its territory since midnight, though potential impact sites of projectiles what got through weren’t immediately disclosed.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the regime is not in a war of survival, telling @margbrennan the regime is “stable and strong enough.”

“We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and… pic.twitter.com/AQdyeWBiFu

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 15, 2026

Flights at Dubai International Airport have been suspended after a fuel take went up on flames. “An Iranian drone attack ignited a fuel tank at Dubai International Airport early Monday, authorities said, as Tehran continued to strike civilian infrastructure across the Persian Gulf,” Washington Post reports. Fujairah has also been hit again.

The Israeli military has said Monday it has begun “wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure” in the Iranian cities of Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz simultaneously. It has vowed to keep hitting Iran “as long as needed” – suggesting no quick end amid the war’s third week.

But Israel also faces unprecedented bombardment by Iran’s sophisticated missile and drone arsenal. Israel’s Health Ministry has newly announced that at least 3,369 people, including civilians and military personnel, have been wounded and injured – with many hospitalized – since the war’s start. At least a dozen people have been killed, but the true numbers could be significantly higher as Israel’s military has censored a lot of wartime information.