Crude Stocks Rise 3.5 Million, Highest Since May 2025

With oil flows passing through the Straits of Hormuz blocked indefinitely, markets were paying especially close attention to today’s weekly DOE report on oil stocks, to see how much capacity the US has in case of a prolonged lockout. The result was satisfactory. 

The DOE reported the following weekly changes:

• Crude +3.475MM, more than the expected +3.00MM, and the highest since May 2025
• Gasoline -1.704MM, down to the lowest since Jan 9, 2026
• Distillates +429K, biggest increase since Jan 2026
• Cushing +1.6MM, rising to the highest since Aug 23, 2024. 

Visually:

Also notable: production dipped modestly by -6kbd to 13.696MMb/d, yet the total US output remains remarkable especially when considering the sharp drop in wells in recent years.

Finally, while still relatively low, Cushing stocks continue to rise, and this week’s 1.6 million barrel increase to 26.5 million pushes them to the highest since August 2024.

Overall, this was a welcome report as it showed that not only is US oil production humming along, but US commercial stocks continue to increase and in a worst case scenario of prolonged Hormuz closure, the US can remain relatively energy independent, even if Asia and especially China and Korea scramble to find alternatives to Gulf energy.