VanEck CEO Thinks Bitcoin Bottom Is In: Why the 4-Year Cycle and $1.1B ETF Inflows Point to Recovery

On Monday, 2 March 2026, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck said, “There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. So I think we can overcomplicate it. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

“Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” he added.

Pointing to the winding down of the four-year cycle, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually pick up this year, arguing that the four-year halving cycle has been the primary driver of price over the past few months, rather than anything related to BTC’s fundamentals.

The $1.1B Signal: How Institutional Crypto Is Moving

If the Bitcoin bottom is indeed forming around the $60,000–$64,000 range, the immediate target for bulls is reclaiming and holding the $68,400 level firmly. A sustained break above $72,000 would likely confirm that the correction is over and the post-halving rally has resumed.

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While headlines focus on volatility, the institutional giants are quietly making their move. We have seen over $1.1 billion in net Bitcoin ETF inflows in just the past week. This is a staggering amount of capital that tells us one thing: the world’s largest asset managers believe Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount.

This behavior is typical of Institutional Crypto. When prices dip and retail sentiment turns sour, entities like BlackRock and Fidelity often accelerate their accumulation. They aren’t day trading for a quick 5% gain; they are positioning for the next leg up.

It isn’t just the US giants, either. We are seeing global validation of this trend, such as the recent Intesa Sanpaolo investment in Bitcoin ETFs, which further confirms that smart money views these levels as an entry point, not an exit.

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What is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle?

There is a growing divide in the market right now. If you look at the Fear and Greed Index, sentiment is shaky. Retail traders are exhausted by the sideways movement and the recent dips to the low $60,000s.

According to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, the answer lies in the predictability of Bitcoin’s history. He argues that analysts often overcomplicate the market, ignoring the fact that the 4-Year Cycle remains the dominant force driving price action.

The 4-Year Cycle is built around the Bitcoin Halving, an event programmed into Bitcoin’s code that cuts the supply of new coins in half every four years. Historically, this supply shock creates a predictable rhythm: a parabolic run-up, a corrective year, and a recovery phase.

Van Eck suggests that the current price chop is simply the market following this script. Instead of a broken market, we are likely seeing the natural formation of a bottom before the supply squeeze truly kicks in. This thesis is supported by on-chain data indicating that Bitcoin mining capitulation is nearing its end, a technical signal that has historically marked the floor of major corrections.

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The post VanEck CEO Thinks Bitcoin Bottom Is In: Why the 4-Year Cycle and $1.1B ETF Inflows Point to Recovery appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

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