Belgium Gets Cold Shoulder Ahead Of Russian Asset Confiscation

By Molly Schwartz, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

The Cold Shoulder

Tensions remain high as Russia and Ukraine fail to reach a ceasefire agreement, even as U.S. pressure mounts. One key demand in Russia’s 20-point proposal is a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region, a condition that runs counter to President Zelenskyy’s policy of refusing to cede any territory.

According to Bloomberg, Zelenskyy noted that the U.S. has floated the idea of designating the area a “free economic zone,” while Russia has called it a “demilitarized zone.” Zelenskyy would prefer that it remain a ‘Ukrainian zone,’ but has stated that the ultimate decision on Donbas will rest with the people, to be determined through a referendum or election.

Meanwhile, Russia is stirring concerns in Western Europe. NATO’s Mark Rutte warned EU member states yesterday that “[Europe] must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured.” Speaking in Berlin, he emphasized that broader Europe is “Russia’s next target” and that the continent is “already in harm’s way.”

So while Europe pontificates about how important it is to strengthen their defense, they have turned to leveraging their financial chops. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the EU froze Russian assets. Should a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine come to fruition, Russia would like its money back…but the EU has other plans.

At next week’s EU Summit, European leaders will consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ursula von der Leyen’s plan to cover part of Ukraine’s requirements for 2026 and 2027. As of now, much of the funding comes from interest generated on said frozen Russian assets. Russia is not thrilled about having their assets used for other purposes, calling it theft. While the EU argues that there is no “theft” as “the right of the Russian Central Bank to make a claim on its money and Euroclear’s duty to repay will remain in tact,” one key EU player is taking Russia’s side.

Prime Minister of Belgium, Bart De Wever voiced the following: “The European states pushing for the confiscation of Russian assets in Belgium are mostly those bordering Russia, which have experienced Soviet tyranny and are psychologically at war. But we are not at war with Russia. And we do not wish to be at war with Russia. We must negotiate based on reality, not fantasy. In reality, you don’t steal money from a foreign central bank. Stealing from a central bank is like robbing an embassy.”

Confiscating Russian assets could also complicate peace negotiations. Reducing incentives for the aggressor to agree to a ceasefire may not be the most effective strategy. For now, Belgium appears outnumbered and the EU seems poised to approve the measure.

But such insolence does not come without consequence. Indeed, rather than military intervention or Statecraft, Belgium may have to face something far worse should De Wever fail to come around…the cold shoulder.

As Belgium risks the cold shoulder, Putin is cozying up to Maduro, stomping on the sanctity of the “Donroe Doctrine.” Putin and Maduro spoke over the phone, with Putin promising Moscow’s support for Venezuela and Maduro’s government. The two leaders spoke by phone, with Putin pledging Moscow’s support for Venezuela and Maduro’s government. Weeks earlier, Maduro reportedly told Trump he would leave Venezuela if granted full legal amnesty for himself and his family.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ratcheting up pressure on Maduro. While the EU debates financial measures, Washington is signaling readiness for escalation. The U.S. has increased its military presence off Venezuela’s coast and recently seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi announced on X that the tanker was seized under a warrant for transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran, sharing video footage of the operation.