US Utility Giants Discuss Soaring Power Bills, Grid Reforms In The Data-Center Era

Readers were given an epic breakdown on Wednesday detailing the true scale of funding needed for the AI data-center boom, one that would require an estimated $5 trillion in investment, with Washington on the hook for at least $1 trillion of it. In a separate note, we highlighted an inconvenient truth for this cycle: the U.S. is short 44 nuclear power plants.

Power is the obvious bottleneck that could derail the entire AI boom cycle. We now turn to Goldman analysts led by Carly Davenport for deeper insight into what electric companies are saying about the grid’s current structure, data center demand, load growth, the power-bill crisis, and other critical topics discussed at the EEI Financial Conference in Hollywood, Florida, earlier this week.

Davenport told clients that sentiment across the utilities sector was broadly constructive, driven by optimism about accelerating load growth, expanding capital spending plans, and a stronger earnings outlook heading into 2026. She noted investors are increasingly focused on identifying which utilities have downside protection tied to data-center growth and which are proactively addressing labor, supply-chain, and affordability constraints.

Conversations during the meetings highlighted growing bullishness toward NextEra Energy and Sempra, while near-term political and regulatory developments remain key issues for Public Service Enterprise Group, Southern Company, and PG&E Corp.

Here’s a breakdown of the top ten takeaways Davenport had from EEI:

1. Focus on inflections in regulatory backdrops. Several utilities are experiencing significant state-level policy shifts and ongoing rate case activities. In New Jersey, the upcoming transition to Governor-elect Sherrill’s administration and anticipated changes within the BPU are topical. PEG is preparing to leverage mechanisms such as utilizing ZECs to help alleviate customer bills, aligning with the new administration’s focus. EXC expects its NJ rate case at ACE to be on track for year-end 2025, and FE noted that clarity on BPU composition will be key ahead of upcoming rate case filings at JCP&L. Elsewhere, ES is focused on securing regulatory approvals for its Aquarion sale and storm cost securitization in CT from a newly composed PURA. Sentiment is growing more constructive on a positive shift in balanced collaboration between utilities and regulators in the state. Finally, SO noted 2026 could be noisy from a state-wide elections standpoint, but with a relatively quiet regulatory calendar, the company plans to actively engage with newly elected commissioners on utility economics and affordability.

2. Still room for positive capex revisions into 4Q earnings, with focus on financing options. SRE anticipates significant capital plan upside at Oncor, highlighting opportunities around an incremental ~$12 bn on top of the preliminary 30% increase to the current five-year plan, driven by accelerated Permian transmission projects and substantial data center load growth, with a definitive update pending the ongoing rate case outcome. DUK has previewed a robust $95-105 bn capital plan, with an expected update next quarter, and sees the $10 bn upside range driven by LNG solutions and transmission investments, while exploring numerous options around financing, including private credit for specific projects. XEL targets a 9% EPS CAGR through 2030, and has identified significant upside around both generation and transmission, with resource plans pointing to a potential $16-20 bn (though XEL targets 50% ownership of assets) and over $10 bn for transmission projects. FE benefits from the PJM open window, with three identified projects on the RTEP short list totaling approximately $3 bn in potential capital expenditures, in addition to growth opportunities in West Virginia from data centers, with current generation addition plans estimated at $2.2-2.5 bn of capital. Finally, SO mentioned potential capex upside, driven by significant demand growth particularly from large industrial and data center loads in Georgia, in addition to FERC natural gas pipelines.

3. Potential for greater state involvement to reform PJM. Utilities are increasingly advocating for greater state involvement in reforming the PJM market, driven by perceived market inadequacies and the need for enhanced resource adequacy. EXC advocates for states to take more control over generation procurement through processes like Maryland’s dispatchable generation procurement and Illinois’s IRP, while also pushing for expedited interconnection and extended price collars within PJM. PEG emphasizes the necessity for New Jersey to implement a comprehensive IRP to define reliability standards, emissions targets, and affordability metrics, suggesting that state-led solutions, potentially including utility-owned storage, gas or nuclear generation, are crucial, and advocating for competitive processes that allow rate-base solutions. FE highlights West Virginia’s proactive approach, where the governor is focused on generation, transmission, and energy security, allowing for new generation filings outside of standard IRP cycles to meet rapid load growth, and notes a desire for continued capacity pricing caps in PJM with less traction for longer-duration auctions. This collective sentiment points towards a growing trend where states are stepping in to ensure resource adequacy and guide generation development.

4. Affordability and bill transparency remain top of mind. As utilities strive to meet rising power demand, affordability remained a key discussion point in our meetings with management. ED’s management highlighted that property taxes, which constitute a sizable portion (~20%) of customer bills, will potentially be displayed separately to consumers as part of its joint proposal for its CECONY rate cases, aiming to promote transparency. During our meeting with PEG, management discussed the possibility of refunding ZECs to customers, which could reduce rates by 2%. However, this was viewed as a short-term solution, given that bill inflation in PEG’s service territories rose 17-20% year-over-year, largely due to supply cost increases rather than distribution costs for which PEG is directly responsible. Collectively, utilities emphasized that affordability is paramount, with customers and regulators seeking greater clarity, hence the focus on bill inflation targets (e.g., DUK aiming to keep bills below inflation).

5. EPC relationships matter for capital plan execution. Several utilities are emphasizing the strategic importance of long-term Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) relationships and partnerships to ensure efficient capital plan execution and manage labor and equipment supply. AEP highlighted that its partnership with Quanta will be key to secure labor and transformers/breakers for grid project execution, while its agreements with Kiewit, allowed for proactively locking in turbine slots. Similarly, DUK underscored its partnerships with EPCs like Zachry and Kiewit to standardize operations and ensure a consistent labor force across multiple sites, while XEL has pivoted from project-by-project RFPs to partnering with key tier-1 EPCs for a multi-year book of business. WEC also highlighted its long-standing relationships with EPCs/developers such as Burns & McDonnell and Invenergy to line up labor and manage project delivery. This positioning is crucial for mitigating supply chain constraints, standardizing equipment, and ensuring a stable, skilled labor force to manage the scale and complexity of current capital plans.

6. Phase 2 of wildfire policy reform underway, but investors still in wait and see mode. Phase 2 of the California’s wildfire policy reform is actively progressing, with Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) like PCG, EIX, and SRE collaboratively engaging in the process. Over 30 diverse stakeholders have submitted abstracts, with IOUs filing together to present a unified front on problem identification and solution principles, aiming for a whole society approach to reduce wildfire risk and ensure predictable claims recovery. Key next steps include the submission of detailed white papers by December 12, with comprehensive reports anticipated by January 30 and a final recommendation on April 1, outlining necessary legislative changes and reforms in areas touching insurance, liability, and community hardening. According to PCG and EIX, credit rating agencies are closely monitoring phase 2 developments, with some mainly seeking tangible progress in Phase 2, while others are awaiting the final legislative outcomes before fully assessing the benefits.

7. Focus on identifying high confidence load from overall pipelines. Investors are increasingly focused on rigorously identifying high-confidence load within utility pipelines, moving beyond speculative inquiries to secure firm commitments. There is a higher degree of focus on signed ESAs, and more concern from investors that LOAs do not have the staying power that they have had previously. Companies are working to cull the speculative inquiries by requiring upfront deposits to conduct load/engineering studies, including FE, WEC, DUK, EXC and AEP. For example, AEP and EXC employ measures such as upfront deposits, take-or-pay contracts, and TSAs or LOAs that can convert to ESAs to identify high confidence load. AEP sees 80% of its LOAs converted to ESAs in PJM, though that share is lower in Texas/SPP. SO also has ESAs for its 2 GW of demand, with customers already funding engineering and site studies.

8. Customer and financial protections for data center deals are key: Across meetings, minimum take provisions, 12-18 year contract lengths, and termination fees emerged as key considerations, reflecting the push to ensure predictable cash flows amid unprecedented data center led power demand surge. WEC’s filed tariff for very large customers includes robust protections: hyperscalers must cover all incremental infrastructure costs, agree to 20-year contracts if seeking renewable generation, and pay for all requested capacity even if not fully utilized. Under the terms of WEC’s proposed contract for large load customers, they must pay the net book value if WEC cannot re-purpose assets upon early contract termination, providing downside protection for WEC and its other customers. Overall, managements remained confident that a collapse of the tech driven data center build-out is less of a concern for in flight projects, given the amount of capital tech companies are investing in the facilities. The tone of our meetings remained optimistic, with data centers driving a large portion of power demand in the U.S., but with utilities prioritizing contract discipline and balance sheet protection over headline megawatt wins.

9. Investors still highly focused on revisions to EPS growth CAGRs. Investors are seeking proof that increased power demand is translating into earnings growth for utilities. Companies that have successfully raised their EPS CAGRs are viewed more favorably on the back of this theme. For instance, XEL, targeting a 9% EPS CAGR through 2030, received positive feedback from attendees. NEE’s upcoming investor day is anticipated to bring potential earnings revisions, aligning closer to its historical EPS CAGR of approximately 10%, especially since its current CAGR is lower at 6%-8%. AEP’s recent guidance revision to a 7%-9% CAGR, with expectations of achieving 9% actual earnings growth, was also well-received. Some investors have queried if there is upside to DUK’s current 5%-7% earnings CAGR over time, given its projected annual rate base growth of approximately 8.5% (at the lower end of its new capital plan) and management’s expectation to comfortably reach the top end of the current range by 2028. For SO, growth is projected to be in the 5%-7% range, with 2027 and 2028 likely above the top end, after which the company would re-base off 2028, which was viewed as mixed by investors.

10. All the above generation technologies needed to meet demand. Renewables remain topical for utilities with investors focused on projects that are safe harbored. NEE also talked about how 8-hour batteries are becoming increasingly cost-competitive, though there are still technology evolutions needed for longer duration options. Nuclear has also been topical where PEG had talked about its opportunity for new nuclear development where it would leverage its existing early site permit but established that it will not direct capex into new nuclear generation to avoid development risk. In meetings, our overall impression was that bridge solutions are not viewed as cannibalization risk due to the amount of demand needing to be met, and that utilities including NEE and AEP are also considering those options to provide better time to power for customers.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the complete note (here) with additional color from the EEI conference about data centers colliding with the grids.