Bitcoin Defies Shutdown as Key U.S. Economic Data Drops: Will NFP Dent BTC USD Price?

Crypto seems to thrive on chaos, defying everyone’s expectations. Just when many thought the bull run was over, BTC USD staged a stunning comeback. Trading above $120,000 at press time, the Bitcoin price has reclaimed its July 2025 highs and hit a two-month peak. Bulls are firmly in control and appear determined to push BTC USDT even higher today.

On Coingecko, the surge isn’t limited to Bitcoin. Some of the best cryptos to buy are trending higher, lifting the total market cap above $4.1T. Presently, Bitcoin commands over +56% of the total market share. Meanwhile, Ethereum, in second place, has slipped, controlling just +12% of the total market cap.

The Bitcoin price is trending higher amid the U.S. government shutdown. With NFP data delayed, will BTC USD shoot above $125,000?

(Source: Coingecko)

Data from Coinglass shows traders scrambling to position for a potential moonshot this Uptober. In the last 24 hours, more than $249M in shorts were liquidated, wrecking over 147,000 traders and driving total liquidations past $395M. The biggest casualty was a $6.5M BTC USD short position closed on Hyperliquid.

The Bitcoin price is trending higher amid the U.S. government shutdown. With NFP data delayed, will BTC USD shoot above $125,000?

(Source: Coinglass)

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Is BTC USD Ready for All-Time Highs?

Technically, the uptrend remains intact and poised to continue. Since Wednesday, Bitcoin bulls have built a solid base during two days of strength, with buyers piling in and momentum building on a net positive note.

Crypto Fear and Greed Chart

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On the daily chart, initial support lies around $118,000, near September highs. A deeper level offers backing at October 1 lows of about $114,000. If BTC USD holds above this zone and buyers scoop up any dips, the chances of breaking $125,000, and claiming fresh all-time highs this October, will rise.

A push higher would extend gains from last year beyond +100%. Bitcoin is already up more than 195.51M% from its all-time lows and shows no signs of slowing as traders and institutions continue buying in.

Confidence remains high, with top traders’ long/short ratio on Binance exceeding 1.7. That said, the ratio dipping below 1 among elite accounts on Binance and OKX raises some red flags. Meanwhile, despite Bitcoin’s upward tick, inflows to spot exchanges are drying up.

The Bitcoin price is trending higher amid the U.S. government shutdown. With NFP data delayed, will BTC USD shoot above $125,000?

(Source: Coinglass)

Selling pressure has intensified over the past 12 hours. During the late New York session on October 2, net Bitcoin flows from major spot exchanges climbed to over $295M, with outflows spiking above $1Bn.

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Will the Prolonged U.S. Government Shutdown and NFP Data Lift the Bitcoin Price?

Ultimately, how the Bitcoin price performs today, and whether it closes decisively above all-time highs, hinges less on candlestick patterns and more on fundamental catalysts.

Today, October 3, marks the third day of a partial U.S. government shutdown, injecting uncertainty across Wall Street. Investors have flocked to hard assets like Bitcoin and gold amid the turmoil.

Coincidentally, over the past two days, BTC USD surged past $118,000 (September highs) and closed above $120,000, reclaiming July 2025 territory for digital gold.

As long as Congress stalls on the budget, the impasse will drag on, likely fueling an even stronger BTC USD rally. Economic doubts have grounded non-essential federal services, furloughing hundreds of thousands of workers and delaying key data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report adds another layer. While it has been delayed today, if it comes in hot, exceeding expectations, it could cap recent BTC USD gains by signaling a healthier economy.

BREAKING: U.S. Jobs Report Halted

•No NFP Today: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has paused the Non-Farm Payrolls release due to the ongoing government shutdown.

•Recent Fed Action: Just two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve cut rates in response to weak job growth and… pic.twitter.com/SomVo7Wyp0

— Crypto Money Mantra (@CryptoMoneyMntr) October 3, 2025

Economists forecast 52,000 jobs added in September, a sharp rebound from August’s 22,000 (revised to 18,000). Unemployment should hold steady at +4.3%, with average hourly earnings rising +0.3%, matching August’s pace.

The Federal Reserve will scrutinize this data closely. A better-than-expected NFP report with more jobs than expected could temper rate-cut hopes, prompting the central bank to hold steady rather than slash rates in late October.

No NFP Report Today:

Two weeks after the Fed cut rates due to labor market weakness, the jobs data has been suspended indefinitely because of the government shutdown.

• Until the shutdown ends, U.S. labor market data will not be published by the Bureau of Labor…

— Capital.com International (@capitalcom) October 3, 2025

Tighter policy might divert capital from risk assets like crypto, cooling Bitcoin’s Q4 momentum. Conversely, softer-than-expected figures could reinforce cuts, channeling fresh liquidity into Bitcoin and amplifying gains, including in top Solana meme coins.

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