Tesla China deliveries projected to hit 72,000 in September: Deutsche Bank

Max Headroom 2025.09.25 2 min read

Tesla’s sales momentum in China is expected to rise this month, with Deutsche Bank estimating about 72,000 vehicle deliveries for September 2025.

Deutsche Bank’s estimate represents a 27% increase from August 2025, but is roughly flat compared to the same month last year.

Model Y L launch boosts order flow

Dealer feedback compiled by Deutsche Bank suggests that Tesla China’s new orders in September could reach around 73,000 units, which is roughly up 14% year-over-year, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The increase is attributed in no small part to the Model Y L, a six-seat long-wheelbase variant of the best-selling all-electric crossover that was launched last month.

Deliveries for the new model began earlier this September, with current orders scheduled for deliveries in November, as per Tesla China’s official website. Analysts also noted that the Model Y L could be a key driver of interest, particularly among larger households looking for vehicles that have higher seating capacity.

Tesla China’s insurance registrations

Tesla’s insurance registrations in China reached 46,950 units in the first three weeks of September 2025, pointing to a steady pace of deliveries for the month. For context, Tesla delivered 57,152 vehicles in August 2025, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That figure represents a decrease of about 10% year-on-year, but an increase of over 40% from July 2025’s 40,617 units.

Deutsche Bank’s September projection, if proven accurate, would mark Tesla’s strongest monthly performance since the summer slowdown. China is still critical to Tesla’s overall delivery outlook heading into Q4, and the best-selling Model Y is still expected to play a central role in the company’s sales in the country.

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