Despite Bostic Fearmongering, Fed’s Own Inflation Survey Shows No Signs Of Tariff Tantrum

Well, this is going to become a little awkward…

While some on The Fed believe that tariffs will unleash the worst parts of stagflationary hell on the average American (and therefore they should not cut rates), it appears the ‘Americans’ themselves are far less concerned.

This morning we heard Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterate that there are reasons to be skeptical that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be temporary.

“This question about whether tariffs are a one-time thing, or whether they’re going to be more persistent in their effects and might even cause structural changes, I think is perhaps the most important question that we have today,” Bostic said Thursday during a virtual discussion organized by the Florida Institute of CFOs.

He further argued that the Trump administration’s aim in imposing tariffs is to reshape US supply chains. The structural changes that result, he said, also raise the risk of a persistent impact.

Governor Christopher Waller (who appears to be the front-runner to replace Powell) has argued the Fed can “look through” the inflation impact of tariffs as transitory.

Waller favored a quarter-point cut last week when his colleagues voted to hold rates steady.

According to the latest data from The New York Fed’s Sentiment Survey, Americans (on average) agree with Waller with households’ inflation expectations barely moving in July, and still below the levels pre-Liberation Day…

Compare NYFRB’s survey to that of UMich’s Democrats and one could be forgiven for believing there is a partisan nature to this farce…

Even more risible is the fact that all the underlying cohorts that affect everyday Americans are seeing price fears trend lower…

Furthermore, consumers expect smaller growth in their tax payments and are more optimistic about their household financial situations…

So, the next time The Fed tells you that they are worried about inflation expectations (and the knock on impact to consumer spending) – and that is what is holding them back from rate-cuts – perhaps ask them about their own data… and the fact that it shows no fear among Americans.