UFC 317 mailbag: Ilia Topuria has ascended, and so has Alexandre Pantoja

The lightweight champion has a name, and that name is Ilia Topuria.

On Saturday, Topuria became the 10th two-division champion in UFC history when he knocked out Charles Oliveira to claim the vacant lightweight title at UFC 317. It was another spectacular performance from a fighter in the middle of a legendary run, and already has people salivating about where he might end up.

Plus, before that, Alexandre Pantoja made his own history, defending his flyweight title with a submission victory over Kai Kara-France in the co-main event. That win was Pantoja’s fourth consecutive title defense, putting him in rarified air and firmly entrenching “Pants” as the second-greatest flyweight of all time. And when the greatest is Demetrious Johnson, second place ain’t half bad.

With plenty to discuss, let’s address your questions.

Ilia Topuria’s generational run

How much of a threat is Ilia’s 3KO run to Jon Jones GOAT status.

Well, first of all, Jon Jones is not the GOAT. I’ve spoken to many scientists and farmers, and all of them assure me that chickens (nor ducks) can be GOATs. That being said, Jones is certainly still among the names in consideration to be the MMA GOAT, but we shouldn’t just be defaulting to that.

Now, to your question. Topuria does not represent a massive threat to the crown of GOAT, because no fighter ever does. Greatness in MMA is not amassed with a few good wins, but built, brick by brick, over a lifetime of exceptional wins and performances. With what he has accomplished so far, Topuria is certainly on the right path, but he’s still very early in the journey. And for as talented as Topuria is, and for how much the MMA community at large seems ready to foist this mantle on him, he still has to walk the path, and that’s damn hard.

What I will say is that Topuria is in as good of shape to pursue All Time Great status as any fighter I’ve ever seen. He is, obviously, remarkably gifted, and he’s already accomplished an incredible amount at just 28 years old. In fact, I’d say he’s accomplished more at this age than anyone before him ever has. Add in that he’s the beneficiary of some excellent timing (if he sticks at lightweight, there are a lot of great fighters on the back end of their careers right now he can feast on) and he’s in the perfect position to carve his name on the Mount Rushmore of MMA. But he still has to do it.

It will be fun to see him try.

Three-Division Champion?

Out of all the double champs, Topuria has the best chance to become triple champion, am I right?

He has the best chance in terms of he may actually get a chance, but I would put his potential to claim the welterweight title at very close to zero. Topuria looked like a featherweight on Saturday, because he is. He can get away with that at lightweight (though more on that in a second), but I do not think he’ll have the same level of joy at 170. If Islam Makhachev wins the welterweight belt, and if the UFC makes that fight, maybe he could KO Islam. But I’ll believe that when I see it.

I’d actually put my money on Alex Pereira. “Poatan” already has two belts, and heavyweight is an abomination. And while I’d pick Tom Aspinall to beat Pereira, it wouldn’t stun me if “Poatan” landed one and did the damn thing.

Lightweight title picture

Do you think the seemingly random and off the cuff moment where Paddy Pimblett got brought into the cage for the impromptu face off will force the UFCs hand into making that fight? And is it even that bad? Dana is mad at Arman and does Justin deserve another title shot? Who else is there?

Yes. The UFC is going to follow the money on this one and book Topuria vs. Pimblett, and they obviously should.

You’ll find no bigger Justin Gaethje fan than I, but the man lost just last year. It’s not some travesty if he gets passed over. Along similar lines, Arman Tsarukyan is the obvious No. 1 contender, but he’s in the dog house after screwing up UFC 311. Arman is gonna need to win one, opening the door for Pimblett.

Now, does Pimblett deserve it? No. But deserve has nothing to do with it. Pimblett is on a good win streak, there’s heat behind this matchup, and it is probably the biggest fight the promotion can put together.

On top of that, while I strongly favor Topuria to beat Pimblett, I am interested to see how he fares against a big lightweight who has a great chin.

Book this fight.

Upset the apple cart

Out of Paddy, Arman, and Gaethje….Arman probably has the best chance out of those 3 to beat Illia right?

Certainly. Arman Tsarukyan is a very, very good fighter. I would still pick Topuria over him, but I’m far from confident about that one.

Pimblett is the next best of those three. He is huge in comparison and can take a punch. That’s a pretty good starting point for trying to fight Topuria.

Gaethje is last. I love Gaethje, but like some of Topuria’s other opponents, he’s past his prime. Gaethje remains elite, but he’s getting sparked out promptly at this stage of his career.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Demetrious Johnson

How much would you pay for Prime DJ vs this Pantoja?

$200. Maybe more. So much money.

Demetrious Johnson is pretty much universally considered to be one of the greatest fighters of all time, and I somehow still think the man is underrated. At his peak, the man was light years ahead of his competition. Pantoja isn’t in the same ballpark in that regard, but he has clearly established himself as the best flyweight of this generation, and the only man who can hold a candle to “Mighty Mouse.” Seeing the two of them go at it would rule, especially because I think they match up in a fun way. DJ was so cerebral and adaptable, but Pantoja has that extra gear where he can just will himself to the next level. It would be like Plastic Man vs. The Hulk, at flyweight. Sign me up.

Joshua Van

Percentage chance of Josh Van beating Pants?

Speaking of awesome flyweights, Joshua Van has arrived.

On Saturday, Van gutted out a hard-fought win over Brandon Royval to assert himself as the top flyweight contender, seemingly out of nowhere. Now he’s going to get his shot to crack the Pantoja problem, and I don’t like his chances, at least not this time.

Van is an awesome fighter, but he’s still not even a fully-formed one. He’s 23 years old and learning on the job. We saw some of that Saturday when he was losing the fight, before figuring out how to disrupt Royval’s rhythm with oblique kicks down the stretch. That sort of adaptability is a great thing to have and will serve him well, but it’s still raw. At this stage, Van seems like he doesn’t quite have the tools to get past Pantoja.

But in a few years, that very likely changes. You never know how things will unfold, but Pantoja can’t have that much longer left at the top, and Van is only getting better. If these two meet again in a couple of years, Van might be the one to end the Pantoja title reign. I certainly expect him to hold the belt at some point.

Pour one out for Charles Oliveira

Greater career, Charles Oliveira or Shogun Rua?

First, this is an incredible question.

Second, pour one out for Charles Oliveira, who is an All-Time Great but now firmly out of the title picture.

Third, it’s Shogun Rua, but I really had to think about it.

The career Renaissance Oliveira underwent after he moved back up to lightweight was really something to behold. Seven consecutive finishes before then beating Tony Ferguson (before he was fully washed), and then finishing Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier, and Justin Gaethje — that’s a hell of a run. By doing that, he won the UFC title and cemented himself as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But there are some issues.

(To be clear, everything I’m about to say is a nitpick, but that’s what happens in conversations like this. When you’re debating greatness among elite fighters, those are the margins.)

The biggest is the losses. All fighters have them, but it’s tough when Oliveira’s are almost all bad. Of his 11 defeats, 9 were stoppages (only Arman Tsarukyan and Frankie Edgar didn’t get him out of there), and eight of them came before his career-defining run. That’s sort of poor timing, and tough to move past.

In contrast, Shogun mostly lost a lot of fights after his peak years in the sport. Everyone knows about Shogun’s 2005 — arguably the greatest single year a fighter has ever had — but even after that, Shogun was putting on heaters nearly a decade later. And while people will look at the end of Shogun’s career as a negative, that’s sort of just life in MMA. If Oliveira sticks around for another six years, he’ll probably go out the same. But the highs he achieved simply weren’t as big as the highs Shogun did.

Regardless, both men are undeniably in the Top 50 greatest fighters list, and may well be in the Top 25.

Thanks for reading, and thank you for everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck, because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer my favorite ones! Doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.

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