UFC 317 Paths to Victory: How can Ilia Topuria stop Charles Oliveira and become a 2-division champion?

UFC 308: Topuria v Holloway — Ilia Topuria | Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ilia Topuria is chasing greatness at International Fight Week.

This Saturday, Topuria moves up to 155 pounds to challenge Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title in the main event of UFC 317. If he succeeds, Topuria becomes only the 10th fighter in UFC history to win titles in multiple weight classes, joining the likes of Alex Pereira, Amanda Nunes, Randy Couture, and others.

Similarly, Oliveira seeks to make his own kind of history on Saturday, attempting to become the first fighter to hold the lightweight title more than once. Saturday’s main event is a superfight with super stakes, so let’s take a look at how each man can make history this weekend.

Paths to victory for Ilia Topuria at UFC 317

Ilia Topuria is the best prospect in MMA.

That’s a weird thing to say about a man who is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport and was the 2024 Fighter of the Year, but that’s what happens when you accomplish so much and you’re still just 28 years old. Topuria is just now entering his prime fighting years, which means the incredible heights we’ve seen him achieve already mark the low point of his ability for the foreseeable future. God help the rest of the lightweight division.

Topuria’s game is built around his boxing and his pressure. Though he’s held out to be a standout grappler, we’ve seen very little of that aspect to his game, as he mostly backs opponents up and then clubs them. Not only does he have big power—which we know translates up to lightweight—he also has brutal body shots. All this is backed up by terrific footwork and solid defensive fundamentals.

And against Oliveira, these are the only tools he really needs. Oliveira has always been hittable on the feet, relying on his dangerous guard to buy him time when he gets cracked. That still may work against Topuria, but what he won’t do well against is the body work. Oliveira has never been great against a targeted body attack, and if Topuria gets his A game going—walking Oliveira down and ripping body, then head—that lines up very well for the featherweight champion.

Oliveira is durable, so Topuria might not get him the first or the second time, but if he consistently puts on the pressure, eventually he should overwhelm the former lightweight champion.

Paths to victory for Charles Oliveira at UFC 317

As you may have gathered from above, this is not an easy fight for Oliveira. In fact, other than Makhachev, there might not be a worse stylistic matchup for Oliveira at 155 pounds. But just because it’s hard doesn’t mean it’s unwinnable.

Oliveira has a few things working in his favor on Saturday, most notably, his size. While “do Bronx” fought at featherweight once upon a time, he hasn’t been a 145er in many years, and simply could not make the weight now. Oliveira is a big lightweight, and the one time we’ve seen Topuria at 155 pounds, he had difficulty dealing with Jai Herbert’s size and length. No disrespect, but Charles Oliveira is considerably better than Jai Herbert.

As the bigger man, Oliveira would be well-served to use that advantage, not at range but in the clinch. Charles is a sneaky-good clinch fighter, and his natural size edge should give him ample opportunities in tie-ups to score. We haven’t seen Topuria in the clinch too often, so Oliveira should look to test that water immediately.

Another thing working in Oliveira’s favor is his kicking game. Topuria hasn’t really fought many fighters who are dedicated kickers, and even so, his opponents have leaned into that weapon because of how effective it can be. Both Alexander Volkanovski and Josh Emmett went to body kicks often, and Oliveira—a better kicker than both—should look to do the same. Not only does it score, but it also keeps Topuria’s hands close to home, which means they’re less likely to punch you.

More important than either of those, though, is the footwork battle. Oliveira is definitely slowing down, but he cannot afford to give ground in this matchup. Topuria on the attack is a bad, bad man. Oliveira has to decide the opening bell to not back up an inch, because once he starts moving backward, the war is lost.

Questions

I have two questions about this matchup that may ultimately be meaningless, but I nonetheless cannot stop wondering about.

How washed is Oliveira? He looked slower against Michael Chandler, who Paddy Pimblett then annihilated. Is Oliveira cooked, and we just don’t know it yet? If so, this will end poorly, quickly.
Is Ilia Topuria looking past Oliveira? “El Matador” has been on quite the journey over the past few months, changing his nickname to something terribly egotistical, then changing it back, beefing with Islam Makhachev, giving conflicting statements about what he’s going to do, and now openly talking about moving to welterweight after this fight. What you aren’t hearing in any of that is a deep respect for Charles Oliveira or the threat he may pose. Looking past opponents is never a good idea, and it’s possible Topuria is making that mistake.

Prediction

If Oliveira were a younger man, I’d like his chances to pull off the upset a lot more. Yes, the stylistic matchup is bad, but Oliveira would have his own advantages he could play to. Now? Oliveira is on the decline, and the gap in speed here is going to be enormous. Ilia is probably going to have to drop him two or three times to get it done, but he won’t have much problem doing that.

Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira by TKO (punches) — 2:21, Round 2

UFC 317 Paths to Victory: How can Ilia Topuria stop Charles Oliveira and become a 2-division champion?

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