Paths to Victory: Breaking down the two bantamweight title fights at UFC 316

UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC — Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili | Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The UFC is headed back to New Jersey and it’s bringing two bantamweight title fights with it.

This Saturday at the Prudential Center, Merab Dvalishvili puts his bantamweight title on the line in a rematch with Sean O’Malley in the main event of UFC 316. Just before that, Julianna Peña puts her women’s bantamweight belt up for grabs against Kayla Harrison in the co-main event. It’s two important fights with huge ramifications for their divisions, so let’s take a look at both bouts and check out the keys to victory for both title fights on Saturday.

UFC 306 at Riyadh Season Noche UFC: O’Malley v Dvalishvili

Paths to Victory for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley at UFC 316

If it seems like we just broke down this fight, it’s because we did. Dvalishvili and O’Malley first squared off just nine months ago at UFC 306. I did a whole breakdown of that fight, and while I was wrong in my prediction, the core point remains the same: Dvalishvili has cardio for days and relentless wrestling, that O’Malley has to find a way to disrupt if he wants a chance to win. The problem is, O’Malley did not succeed in that mission the last time out.

In their first fight, Dvalishvili basically had his way with things. O’Malley wasn’t able to keep himself at range or seriously hurt Dvalishvili, leading to an inevitable Merab-ing. Afterward, of course, O’Malley said he had a torn labrum in his hip that prevented him from properly preparing, and perhaps that’s a big deal to you. But I’m not so sure. Yes, O’Malley might be a little more prepared to do hard grappling than he was last time, but is that enough to change the outcome?

If O’Malley wants to get his belt back, he has to keep his back off the fence, and keep Dvalishvili at range. Moreover, he has to punish Dvalishvili at range. Running away from Merab for 25 minutes won’t win rounds and it likely just gasses O’Malley out. He needs to pop Dvalishvili with shots to the body and move. The teep kick should be his best friend on Saturday as it keeps range, works the body, and doesn’t require a big commitment to score. Teep, circle, teep, circle, and then, when Dvalishvili inevitably does get inside, break grips and pivot as fast as possible. Don’t let Merab chain wrestle because if he starts doing that, the battle is lost.

And for Dvalishvili, the game plan is simple, just do you. Dvalishvili has the best cardio in MMA history and he knows how to turn fights into CrossFit competitions. No one can keep up with him in that, and that’s why he’s so effective (also, he’s very durable). If Merab doesn’t pull a “Canelo Hands” Belal Muhammad and try to become a boxer overnight, he should feel good about his chances.

Paths to victory for Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison at UFC 316

After reclaiming the women’s bantamweight title with a contentious decision win over Raquel Pennington last year, Peña begins her second title run against two-time PFL champion Kayla Harrison. But this fight is for more than just the women’s 135-pound title — it’s also for a shot at the soon-to-be-returning Amanda Nunes. Can Peña once again play spoiler to the long-awaited Nunes vs. Harrison matchup?

Well, if she’s going to, Peña has her work cut out for her. You don’t get to be a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo by accident, and that’s the game Peña must be prepared to combat. Harrison is a force of nature, with astounding physicality and a deep well of technical ability on the floor. Her A, B, and C games all involved clinching her opponent, hitting them with some judo, and then working them over on the floor with elbows and punches, until she can find a submission. So the primary mission for Peña has to be to prevent that from happening.

How can she do that? If we’re being honest, she probably can’t; at least, not early on. Peña has never been a great defensive wrestler, or grappler for that matter. Peña’s game is offensive aggression, grit, and durability. It’s going to be the latter two that make the difference for her on Saturday. Peña has to survive the early storm from Harrison, and then take over with dogged determination and superior cardio down the stretch. Harrison is cutting an enormous amount of weight, meaning that if Peña can simply not get stopped in the first few rounds, she can turn the tide like she did to upset Amanda Nunes once upon a time.

For Harrison, the plan is equally simple, finish Peña early. Harrison is not physically well-equipped to get into a back-and-forth war over 25 minutes with someone like Peña. But she is very equipped to grab Peña, toss her, and tap her out. It’s a bit of a gamble, but Harrison is best served by pushing her chips in the middle early instead of trying a measured approach that short-changes her ability to win.

Predictions

As you might guess from the breakdowns, both of these fights have clear winners, to me.

While I do believe O’Malley can make things a little more interesting against Dvalishvili this time around, the smart money is on a repeat performance. No fighter is ever 100 percent heading into a bout and O’Malley’s performance in the first one wasn’t some huge anomaly. He’s never been an elite defensive wrestler, and Merab is durable enough to eat O’Malley’s shots and get to his spots. I suspect the same thing happens again.

Merab Dvalishvili def. Sean O’Malley via unanimous decision (48-47×3)

Kayla Harrison is the biggest betting favorite on the card, and I fully agree with that because this is a stylistic nightmare for Peña. Peña is at her best when her chin and will power can let her Homer Simpson her way to victory, but toughness doesn’t really matter when the blood supply to your brain gets cut off. Noted grapplers like Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko have tapped Peña, Harrison will do the same.

Kayla Harrison def. Julianna Peña via submission (rear-naked choke) — 3:24, Round 1.

Paths to Victory: Breaking down the two bantamweight title fights at UFC 316

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