Here’s What’s Driving The Arctic Dimension Of The Russian-Indian Strategic Partnership

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Rising Indian influence in the Arctic serves as a counterbalance to China’s, which meets both Russian and Western interests…

The Russian-Indian joint working group on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic Ocean, which is expected to become one of the world’s most important trade routes, just held its first meeting last week in Delhi. It was formed as a result of Indian Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow over the summer where he and Putin signed nine agreements for expanding cooperation in diverse fields. Here’s what’s driving the Arctic dimension of their decades-long strategic partnership:

1. India Is Expected To Use The NSR For More Of Its Trade With Europe

The ongoing Israeli-Resistance War indefinitely suspended work on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and inspired the Houthis to blockade the Red Sea, thus raising the costs of Indo-European trade and highlighting how strategically insecure it’s always been. India is therefore expected to use the NSR more in the future as a less risky route to complement the Red Sea one upon its reopening, thus adding context to the four points that’ll follow.

2. Indian Shipyards Have The Capacity To Build Russian Icebreakers

The Maritime Executive reported that Russia’s interest in having India build four non-nuclear icebreakers is due to its shipyards having the capacity that competitors in China, South Korea, and Japan will lack till at least 2028. They also noted that European shipyards can’t service such contracts due to sanctions. India plans to build more than 1,000 ships in the next decade so it makes perfect sense for Russia to invest some of its enormous rupee stockpile into this industry with a view towards developing the NSR.

3. India Also Has Enough Extra Sailors To Train For Navigating The NSR

Last week’s meeting also discussed training Indian sailors, who are the third most numerous in the world, for navigating the NSR. A 2017 Russian law banned shipping oil, natural gas, and coal along that route under a foreign flag, while a 2018 one mandates that these ships will have to be built in Russia. Given Russia’s naturally declining population, experienced Indian sailors could be contracted to help navigate these ships instead of relying on Central Asian migrants, who the locals don’t want any more of.

4. India Could Invest In Russian Arctic Energy Under Certain Conditions

Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, from which a Chinese company withdrew over the summer, could see Indian investment under certain conditions. Its Oil Secretary said last month that his country won’t get involved for now due to the sanctions, but an exemption might be possible if it helps broker an end to the Ukrainian Conflict. Kiev reportedly prefers for India to play this role instead of China, and if it can pull this off, then the West might reward it accordingly in order to reduce China’s influence in the Arctic.

5. India Plays An Indispensable Role In The Global Balance Of Influence

And finally, Russia relies on India to preemptively avert disproportionate dependence on China, which readers can learn more about here, here, and here. Despite Western pressure on India to distance itself from Russia, the West is gradually beginning to appreciate this role as well, hence why it hasn’t imposed maximum sanctions against India for their reportedly covert tech trade. Rising Indian influence in the Arctic therefore serves as a counterbalance to China’s, which meets both Russian and Western interests.

Russian-Indian cooperation in the Arctic is very promising for the reasons that were enumerated, though it’ll be held back from its full potential so long as India remains reluctant to defy Western sanctions on the Arctic LNG II project. Considering India’s indispensable role in the global balance of influence, it and the West should enter into discreet talks on what could be done to receive an exemption, which would then enable India to more effectively compete with China in the Arctic.