Iran Says Talks With US Are ‘Fake News’ After Trump Threatens To ‘Just Keep Bombing’, Wants Hormuz To Be ‘Jointly Controlled’

Summary

• Trump announces “productive” talks with Iran, “postpones” military strikes for 5 days

• Iran Foreign Ministry + Parliament speaker say no talks have happened, after Trump said “speaking with a top person in Iran”, says will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail

• Trump says Hormuz will be “jointly controlled”; Russia and Pakistan step-up as potential mediators, engage with Tehran

• Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, an Israeli official said. US says Israel “will be pleased”

• Iran publishes broad list of potential regional targets: threatens “the entire region will go dark.”

• IEA Executive Director warns of 1970s level oil shocks: “No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction.” Russia mediates in call with Tehran.

Market response: oil down, yields down, stocks up (but all off their kneejerk extremes as skepticism grows)

“The market woke up to some potentially good news,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

“But follow-through on any relief rally will likely require tangible follow-through on the geopolitical front. We’re still living in a headline-driven market.”

The prediction market odds of a ceasefire by April 30th surged above 65% initially but have faded since, remaining above 50%…

Source: Polymarket

“It is impossible to tell whether this signals genuine progress towards an off-ramp for the war, or Trump ‘zig-zagging’ to buy time and keep oil from breaking out towards $150,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.

“It should though offer at least a brief respite on rates – possibly more.”

*  *  * GRAB A MULTITOOL OR THREE (tool box, glove box, gift for dad)

Trump Doubles Down, Insists There Have Been Talks, Amid Iranian Denials

In his latest comments to the press, President Trump reiterates the US and Iran had preliminary talks over the past few days, had very good discussions with Iran, and that’s why energy strikes were postponed temporarily. He described that this time, Iran means business, they want to settle, and Trump stresses “we will get it done I hope.” Meanwhile speculation and theories of secretive backchannel dealing abound.

Below is a note and astute observation from Rich Privorotsky, Goldman’s EU head of Equity Execution:

Escalate to De-Escalate?: Trump’s behavior over the past 72 hours follows a familiar pattern. Friday he floats “winding down”… Saturday he escalates to an extreme ultimatum. Signal willingness to exit, then maximize leverage to extract a concession he can frame as a win. Same playbook as North Korea 2017–18, Soleimani 2020, tariffs with China… escalate then create deadline then offer off ramp. Issue is… this time may be harder. Iran likely sees the pattern and won’t offer an easy concession. A decentralized IRGC makes negotiation structurally difficult. And the West/Gulf won’t accept any equilibrium where Iran has de facto control over Hormuz transit.

US troop status update:

There are indications, based on plane spotters, that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division—likely the alert brigade—have arrived in the Middle East via cargo flights from Fort Bragg and likely Fort Campbell.

USS Gerald R. Ford will be replaced by the USS George H.W. Bush,… pic.twitter.com/ybzoogKApz

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 23, 2026

Iran Confirms No Talks With US, “Fake News”; IRGC Launches More Missiles on Israel

Finally a little ‘clarity’ from a top Iranian state source: Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson says they had no talks with the US, via IRNA. “In recent days, friendly countries sent messages indicating US request to talks to end the war but Iran did not respond,” the statement says.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson affirms that the stance on Strait of Hormuz, conditions to end war did not change, according to more from IRNA. Importantly, state media further says the US tried to negotiate with Iran via intermediaries. Previously, Iranian officials have made clear they want to impose more costs on their attackers. Huge direct confirmation of Iran’s rejection/denial:

2/ No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.

— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) March 23, 2026

The IRGC further announced fresh missile launches on Israel, also as FT reports on further mediation efforts: Pakistan steps up as go-between in Trump’s Iran crisis.

The question of whether Israel actually wants de-escalation remains a big one, as Israel has continued attacking the Islamic Republic even as Trump touts alleged indirect dialogue. This was Trump earlier in the day… some surprising words to say the least:

Reporter: “what about the Strait of Hormuz, who is going to be in control of that?”

Trump: “uhhh, be jointly controlled …”

Reporter: “by who?”

Trump: “maybe me … me and the Ayatollah”pic.twitter.com/hcwRS5PbZf

— Rory Johnston (@Rory_Johnston) March 23, 2026

President Trump Refutes Iran’s Denial of Talks, says Hormuz Will Be “Jointly Controlled”

Trump says US, Iran talks have “major points of agreement”.

President Trump responded to reporters questions about Iran’s denial of talks:

• TRUMP: IRAN NEEDS BETTER PUBLIC RELATIONS PEOPLE

• TRUMP: IRAN WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A DEAL, WE WOULD LIKE A DEAL TOO

• TRUMP: WE’LL GET TOGETHER WITH IRAN PROBABLY BY PHONE

• TRUMP: SPEAKING WITH A TOP PERSON IN IRAN

• TRUMP: PERSON WE’RE SPEAKING WITH IS NOT IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER

• TRUMP: WE HAVE NOT HEARD FROM IRAN’S SUPREME LEADER

Trump then laid out what Washington wants:

• TRUMP: WE WANT NO ENRICHMENT, WE ALSO WANT THE ENRICHED URANIUM

• TRUMP: WE WANT TO SEE NO NUCLEAR BOMB OR WEAPON FOR IRAN

On Hormuz:

• *TRUMP: HORMUZ WILL BE OPEN VERY SOON `IF IT WORKS’

• *TRUMP: STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL BE JOINTLY CONTROLLED

On oil prices:

*TRUMP: OIL PRICES WILL ‘DROP LIKE A ROCK’ WHEN DEAL IS DONE

On funding:

• TRUMP: THE $200B MILITARY FUNDING WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE

Israel is not seeing an imminent end to the war, and plans to continue operations while avoiding energy assets, according to an Israeli official, who asked Bloomberg not to be identified discussing private matters. 

Israel was told about Trump’s social media post ahead of time, two officials said.

• *TRUMP: WE JUST SPOKE WITH ISRAEL A LITTLE WHILE AGO

• *TRUMP: ISRAEL WILL BE VERY HAPPY WITH WHAT WE HAVE ON IRAN

President Trump, asked about Iranian media denying talks with the US, says the most recent set of negotiations took place last night, Fox Business reports.

He said talks involved Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and their counterparts, adding a deal with Iran could be reached in five days or sooner.

Russia as Potential Mediator

As we reported, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shortly after Trump claimed Washington and Tehran were dialoguing. Russia moved to position itself as a mediator. Its Foreign Ministry said Lavrov called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and a political settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of all parties involved, above all Iran,” in a call initiated by Tehran.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the conflict with Iran is “not of their making” and is already causing major economic disruption. “Whatever your view of Iran, this war is not of their making,” he said. And the UK too has weighed in on Trump’s messaging, with a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer responding: “Any reports of productive talks are welcome.” The statement indicated: “We’ve always said that swift resolution to the war is in global interests and the Strait of Hormuz specifically needs to be reopened.”

Iran State Media Casts Trump As In Retreat, Who Warns US Can Just ‘Keep Bombing’

President Trump in Monday remarks to the press stated that the United States will “just keep bombing” if Iran talks fail.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry made clear there is “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington despite President Trump’s early Monday assertion that weekend discussions were productive.

“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington,” the ministry said, according to state broadcaster IRIB. It added that Trump’s statements were “part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans,” which could include occupying or blockading Iran’s critical Kharg Island.

Weekend major air strikes targeted the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran:

Multiple major air strikes target the Dezful air base (Shekari 4) of Iran’s air force in western Iran today. The impact of the blast wave is visible at the end.

The Dezful air base is home to Iran’s F-5 fighter jets.

Video: @mamlekate

Not sharing the POV to protect the poster. pic.twitter.com/lMaLiFThnJ

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) March 21, 2026

To recount, Trump said the US and Iran had held talks on the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East and that he would delay attacks on Iranian power plants by five days after “productive conversations” with Tehran. Iranian media has cast Trump’s remarks as a retreat: “Fearing a response from Iran, Trump backed down from his 48-hour ultimatum,” IRIB said.

One thing to note amid all these denials, as Nader Itayim noted in a post on X:

Iranian media outlets to issue some kind of response/ reaction so far are Fars News, and Tasnim – both considered to have close ties with the IRGC. 

Irna, or IRIB, the more traditional govt-linked outfits, yet to issue any comment.

Amid the headline pingpong, Yields are rebounding higher, along with oil as stocks retreat from earlier gains…

So who’s lying, and is the truth somewhere inbetween the bombastic headlines? 

“This feels very similar to Trump’s tariff playbook — delay, create optionality, and ultimately step back,” said Manish Singh, chief investment officer at Crossbridge Capital.

“If cooler heads prevail, the outcome here could be a shift toward negotiation rather than confrontation.”

The key now will be how Donald Trump takes the Iranian response. 

“The tone is more upbeat now. But it would be naïve to assume the situation will now be resolved to the satisfaction of all the main combatants and victims of hostilities,” said Bloomberg macro strategist, Simon White.

“Further, negative effects from higher energy prices are now baked in. Stock dynamics will continue to remain negative while an abundance of potential pitfalls remain ahead.”

There’s a chance he will find the situation embarrassing and that matters to markets because he would be more likely to swing back towards a more belligerent stance. 

Israeli Strikes A Mere Hour After Trump Announced US Halt

Israel launched a new wave of strikes on Iran about an hour after Trump announced the halt to US attacks. “The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran,” the Israeli Air Force said on X.

Various reports suggest that Trump waving an olive branch will not be received well by Israeli leadership. “For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of the Israeli cabinet, anything but escalation and complete regime change in Iran is a catastrophe, says Akiva Eldar, an Israeli author and former columnist for the Haaretz newspaper, referring to how Trump’s announcement of talks with Iran was received in Israel,” Al Jazeera writes.

“Trump going back to negotiations means that Israel will not be able to remove the Iranian nuclear threat, which has become Netanyahu’s flag, his claim to fame,” Eldar told the outlet.

There continues to be evidence of severe damage and destruction in Tehran and across the Islamic Republic:

Just ahead of Trump’s decision to delay further strikes, Tehran threatened to expand attacks on US and regional infrastructure. The weekend saw Iranian military spokesman Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari warn Iran would target all US -used fuel, energy, technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region if its own energy sites were hit.

Trump “Postpones” Military Strikes On Iran for 5 Days, Citing “Productive” Talks

Market sentiment has flipped dramatically optimistic this morning just after 7am ET, following a post by President Trump on his TruthSocial feed that says due to “very good and productive conversations” on a “total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East, the US will postpone “any and all military strikes” against Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days…

The front-running of his self-imposed ultimatum deadline (around 7pmET tonight) has caught market participants off guard. Iran hasn’t confirmed the talks but, if they do, this is the first time we’re seeing any kind of opening for an off-ramp to end the war. 

Iran has repeatedly said it wasn’t looking to sit down with the US. 

There has been no comment from Israeli officials. 

The reaction to Trump’s statement – as you might expect – is a crash lower in crude…

…though still well above pre-war levels (as traders are still pricing in a prolonged hit from higher energy prices, even if there is relief following the latest headlines)…

…and spike higher in stocks…

…still below pre-war levels)…

What did the oil producers know?

Oil down 14% https://t.co/U69AoffNF2

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 23, 2026

Bonds and bullion are bid…

Rate-hike expectations have tumbled…

TACOs came early this week… or is it Mission Accomplished?

Iranian officials haven’t yet commented on Trump’s statement, but the headline banner on state TV sets the tone: “US President Retreats After Iran’s Decisive Threats.”

Billionaire hedge fund manager, Dan Loeb had some thoughts…

An oil trader friend of mine shared this Arabic saying.

la muntasir wala mahzum

No victor no vanquished.

Let’s see what happens and how this is framed.

— Daniel S. Loeb (@DanielSLoeb1) March 23, 2026

How long before Tehran officially denies contact?

Iran’s ‘List of Targets’

On Monday, Iran’s Supreme Defense Council threatened to deploy “various types of naval mines” across the Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, according to Tasnim. The warning followed Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after which he said the US would strike all Iranian power plants.

“The entire Persian Gulf will be in conditions similar to the Strait of Hormuz for a long period of time,” the council said, according to Tasnim. It added that “non-hostile countries” could transit the strait “through direct coordination with Iran.”

Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Mehr news wrote: “In case of the slightest attack on the electricity infrastructure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the entire region will go dark.” Here’s the target list it shared:

Saudi Arabia

• The Village (near Al-Khobar): gas power plant (4,000+ MW)
• Ras Tanura (Sharqiya Province): major oil and gas facility / power infrastructure

United Arab Emirates

• Barakah (Al Dhafra, Abu Dhabi): nuclear power plant (~5,600 MW)
• Jebel Ali (South Dubai): gas power and desalination complex (multi-GW capacity)
• Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park (Dubai): large-scale solar power project

Qatar

• Ras Laffan (north Qatar): gas power plant (one of the largest in Qatar)
• Umm Al Houl (south of Doha): gas power + desalination plant (multi-GW capacity)

Kuwait

• Al-Zour South: oil and gas power plant
• Al-Zour North: combined-cycle power plant (multi-GW capacity)
• Shaqaya Energy Park (west Kuwait): solar and wind renewable energy complex

State media published this graphic:

Hormuz Crisis Could Surpass Oil Shocks of 1970s

…if there’s no off-ramp soon – that’s according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. Here’s what he said according to the Associated Press:

The head of the International Energy Agency said Monday that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction,” Fatih Birol said at Australia’s National Press Club in Canberra on Monday.

The crisis in the Middle ⁠East, he said, has had a worse impact on oil than the two oil shocks of the 1970s combined, and a worse effect on gas than the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ship traffic through the strait has dropped from about 100 vessels a week before the war to seven, according to Kpler. Iran has attacked multiple commercial vessels since the US-Israeli assault began, causing fires, damage, and at least one death, and has laid mines in the waterway.

War in Lebanon Expands

On the Lebanon front, Israel said a civilian was killed near the Lebanese border died from friendly fire, not a Hezbollah attack. The Israeli military said initial findings showed Ofer Moskowitz was killed by artillery fire intended to support troops in southern Lebanon.

⚡️Video from an apartment in Arad, Israel, of the moment of impact pic.twitter.com/pVNjPXeBlX

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 21, 2026

Hezbollah had earlier claimed a rocket strike killed the civilian in the Israeli town of Misgav Am; however, the Israeli military says it is investigating whether its own forces were responsible.

Israel’s defense minister has meanwhile ordered expanded destruction of bridges and homes in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about a deeper, entrenched buffer zone. Over one million people have fled their homes and over 1,000 have been killed, according to the Lebanese government. Israeli officials warned residents across large parts of southern Lebanon to evacuate or face danger as a ground operation continues, which they say is aimed at protecting northern Israeli communities.

Pre-Trump Overnight News

And while we wait, let’s take a closer look at global markets prior to the Trump headline, they were all sharply led on the downside by KOSPI which plunged 6.5%. China – SHCOMP and SHPROP were lower by 350bps as well with news outlets highlighting China as a % of global GDP is on the decline. Europe holding on a relative basis but major indices (were) down ~200bps. In commodities, European gas continues reverses previously up 5% to $65 to now down 5% to $55 – still essentially doubling vs. a month ago. Crude (was) steady but elevated with WTI approaching $99 (now $85 post headlines … ).

Precious metals (were) weak with gold off 500bps to $4,270 (now approaching flattish). Yields remain the other part of this difficult equation with the 10-year up to 4.43% (now 4.38%) highest levels since July, breaking out above levels earlier in 2026 despite additional rate cuts now potentially back on the table in market expectations. Dollar following with DXY above $100. Bitcoin flattish but closer to local lows $68.6k (now $71.6k). Macro trading likely to dominate trading & price action today, particularly in light on quiet micro backdrop this morning. The only data on deck is the Chicago Fed and Construction Spending.  On the data front, we’ll get US construction spending, Eurozone consumer confidence and Japanese CPI later this morning. Fed’s Miran speaks at 8:45am.

Looking at premarket movers away from the non stop newsflow, Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +0.5%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +1.8%, Meta +1.4%, Nvidia +2.1%, Microsoft +1%, Apple +1.6%). Energy stocks are falling and airline stocks are rising after Trump said he told US forces to postpone all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

• Apogee Therapeutics (APGE) soars 16% after the drug developer provided maintenance data from a mid-stage trial that showed its experimental therapy deepened responses in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.
• DraftKings (DKNG) gains 8% and Flutter (FLUT) rises 8% after the Wall Street Journal reported that US senators are set to introduce bipartisan legislation to ban sports bets on prediction markets.
• Synopsys (SNPS) gains 3% after people familiar said activist investor Elliott Investment Management has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the chip-design software maker and plans to push for changes.
• Valvoline rises 2% after Stifel raised the recommendation to buy, saying a recent selloff has created a buying opportunity for the automotive services company as concerns about more expensive base oil and gasoline are largely priced into the stock.

In other news, BBG reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities. UBS Group AG Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti said the Iran war could force him to pare back spending, although it won’t fundamentally alter the bank’s overall strategy. Owners of luxury brands ranging from Gucci to Fendi and Bulgari opened more stores in Europe last year despite a slowdown in the wider sector.

Trump’s comments sparked a sharp turnaround in markets after the two sides escalated rhetoric over the weekend, with hours left before a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices have fueled fears that central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy.

“Assuming this holds and there is a path toward a cessation of hostilities, we can expect stabilization in equities, panic liquidation, and crucially, an unwinding of some of the very aggressive rate hikes which have been priced into markets,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY.

Since it is pointless to discuss where stocks are since moves are +/- 1-2% every minute, here is a quick recap of …

• Trump postponed threatened strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days, pending the outcome of talks with Iran to end the war. Iran’s semi-official local media denied any talks had taken place: BBG

• The Trump administration is telling foreign officials and others that it will not reschedule a summit between the president and Chinese leader Xi Jinping until the Iran war ends. Politico

• Donald Trump’s new tariff plans risk getting bogged down in protracted legal challenges as the president relies on obscure laws to wage his trade war after the top court in the US ruled many of his previous duties illegal. FT

• The BoJ is laying the groundwork for tweaks to its policy language in April, keeping alive the chance of a near-term interest rate hike as the weak yen and Middle East conflict pile inflationary pressures on the economy.

• Japanese companies have agreed to raise wages by more than 5% for a third consecutive year, early results from annual labor talks showed on Monday, reflecting sustained gains in pay that policymakers see as key to fostering durable economic growth. RTRS

• A Cuban official said the country is preparing for a possible military assault as Trump increases the economic pressure on the country. BBG

• LaGuardia Airport was closed until at least 2 p.m. after an Air Canada Express plane collided with a fire truck shortly after landing. Two pilots died in the crash. BBG

• Truckers are being “crushed” by the surge in diesel expense, and US consumers will soon feel the increase as the whole supply chain is forced to adjust prices higher to maintain profitability. WSJ

• Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most awkward Federal Reserve leadership transitions in decades. The economy has grown more complicated than when he promised interest-rate cuts last year while campaigning for President Trump to nominate him for the job. Even before the war in Iran sent energy prices higher, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure was heading in the wrong direction. The war threatens to push inflation higher still in the coming months, and investors now view rate increases to be more likely than cuts this year. WSJ

• ARE WE OVERSOLD? That has been one of the most frequent questions this week – and there is not a ton of reassuring evidence just yet. A tactical bounce is clearly possible given recent price action, but the broader setup does not yet point to capitulation. Locally, only ~14% of S&P stocks have hit oversold levels. For context, that figure reached over 50% in April ’25 and north of 40% during Q3 ’22: Goldman