Bitcoin’s Ownership Base Is Maturing, Reducing Reliance On Retail: Analysts

Authored by Micah Zimmermann via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Bitcoin investors have shown surprising resilience despite recent market turbulence, fueled by institutional investors and aggressive corporate treasury buyers. 

Analysts say this trend highlights a structural shift in ownership that could support long-term growth.

Institutional demand is clearly back, with “four consecutive sessions of ETF inflows and aggressive spot demand…suggesting one thing: institutional buyers have returned and they’re ready to increase their holdings around current prices, which recovered to above $70k as a result,” Bitfinex said in a note to Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitfinex wrote that “a sustained break above resistance could trigger momentum expansion, as positioning and the balance of flows suggest that the market is preparing for its next directional move after weeks of range trading.”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan also noted Bitcoin ETFs have held up despite a roughly 50% price drop since October 2025, underlining institutional commitment.

“The best evidence we have is in the ETF market,” Hougan said, according to Coindesk reporting. 

“Bitcoin ETFs accumulated roughly $60 billion in net flows from their launch in January 2024 through October 2025. Since October 2025, prices are down 50%, but we’ve seen less than $10 billion in outflows from ETFs,” he said. 

Hougan described institutional investors as exhibiting “diamond hands,” maintaining positions despite severe market drawdowns. He attributes this persistence to the non-consensus status of BTC.

Hougan said that institutional investors who buy into BTC today are still sticking their neck out and standing out from their peers. That career risk, he explained, fosters unusually high conviction, meaning investors allocating capital to bitcoin today tend to be 80–90% convinced of its long-term value rather than mildly optimistic.

This conviction underpins Hougan’s reaffirmed long-term bitcoin forecast of $1 million per coin. 

“The wildest thing about my $1 million prediction is that it’s not wild at all,” he said. “All you need for bitcoin to get to $1 million is for the global store of value market to continue to grow as it has for the past 20 years and for bitcoin to become a minor but material part of that market.”

Last week, Hougan argued that skepticism over Bitcoin reaching $1 million stems from a misunderstanding of its valuation, as many analysts use “static math” that ignores the rapidly growing global store-of-value market. 

Framing BTC as an emerging competitor to gold, he estimates that with a $38 trillion market and BTC’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, the $1 million price target is plausible.

Bitcoin isn’t very speculative anymore

Supporting this thesis, Bernstein analysts also noted that bitcoin’s ownership base has matured, reducing reliance on retail speculation.

In a March 16 research note seen by Bitcoin Magazine, they highlighted the growing influence of spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy. 

The firm described Strategy as a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” citing its aggressive accumulation model, which has added more than 66,000 BTC so far in 2026 at an average cost near $85,000. Strategy’s total holdings now exceed 761,000 BTC, valued around $56 billion.

Bernstein emphasized that institutional inflows are reshaping BTC’s ownership structure. Spot ETFs absorbed about $2.1 billion in inflows over three weeks, nearly offsetting year-to-date outflows of $460 million. 

Institutional vehicles now control roughly 6.1% of BTC’s total supply, while coins inactive for over a year represent approximately 60% of circulating supply, signaling a growing base of long-term holders.

On top of this, on-chain indicators point to a late-stage bear cycle, as Lacie Zhang of Bitget Wallet explained to Bitcoin Magazine:

“The convergence of on-chain indicators such as realized price and MVRV suggests Bitcoin may be entering the late stage of a typical bear cycle, a phase historically associated with long-term accumulation rather than continued capitulation.” 

Despite short-term macro headwinds, the current conditions signal a strategic accumulation phase, with BTC likely fluctuating between $68,000 and $84,000 as longer-term investors position for the next cycle.