‘Soft’ Data Soars To 2-Year Highs As Chicago PMI Smashes Expectations

Market News International’s Chicago Business Barometer smashed expectations this morning, print 57.7 – the highest since May 2022 – and above the highest analysts’ expectation.

This is the second straight month above 50 (signaling expansion) with new orders and employment surging (but prices also rising)…

• Prices paid rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• New orders rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Employment rose and the direction reversed; signaling expansion

• Inventories fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

• Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Production rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

• Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

This post-government-shutdown rebound in survey-based data has pushed ‘soft’ data to its highest since Jan 2024…

…and while ‘hard’ data has limped lower recently, its remains comfortably positive.