Initial Jobless Claims Jump As YTD Job Cuts Hit Highest Since 2009, AI Blamed

Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week to 231k (212k exp) from 209k prior. While a significant rise, it remains – for now – within the low range of the last four years…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims also rose modestly, but less than expected. 1.844mm Americans are currently filing for jobless benefits (below the 1.85 million expected, but up from the 1.819 million the prior week).

Notably this is still well below the 1.9 million Maginot Line that has become a switching level for fear of weakening labor market.

The ‘Deep TriState’ (government) was responsible for a large chunk of the rise in continuing claims…

However, earlier in the day, global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S.-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, an increase of 118% from the 49,795 cuts announced in the same month last year.

It is up 205% from the 35,553 job cuts announced in December.

“Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January. It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026,” said Andy Challenger, workplace expert and chief revenue officer for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

January’s total is the highest for the month since 2009, when 241,749 job cuts were announced. It is the highest monthly total since October 2025, when 153,074 cuts were recorded.

In January, Contract Loss led all reasons for job cuts, with 30,784 announced during the month.

Market and Economic Conditions followed with 28,392 cuts.

Restructuring was cited for 20,044 job cuts, while store, unit, or department Closings accounted for 12,738 planned layoffs.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) was cited for 7,624 job cuts in January, 7% of total cuts for the month. Companies referenced AI for 54,836 announced layoff plans in 2025.

Since 2023, when this reason was first tracked, AI has been cited in 79,449 job cut announcements, 3% of all layoff plans announced in that period.

“It’s difficult to say how big an impact AI is having on layoffs specifically. We know leaders are talking about AI, many companies want to implement it in operations, and the market appears to be rewarding companies that mention it,” said Challenger.

Finally, and perhaps putting the nail in the coffin, Challenger reports that last month, employers announced 5,306 hiring plans, the lowest total for the month since Challenger began tracking hiring plans in 2009.

Are we transitioning from ‘no hire, no fire’ to ‘no hire, some fire’ labor market?