Bitwise CIO: Crypto Winter Is Real And Near Its End

It has been four months of pain. When Bitcoin broke $126,000 in early October, everyone thought the digital gold was ready to fly as high as $150,000. For a brief moment, it appeared so, until October 10 happened.

Since then, not only have bears been pressing on, but they are having a field day. The Bitcoin price broke below $80,000 over the weekend, while most cryptos recorded double-digit losses.

Crypto Fear and Greed Chart

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Considering this sequence of events, the unrelenting bears, and four months of steady losses, it is safe to say crypto is in a bear market. This is an observation that Matt Hougan, the Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO), agrees with.

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Bitwise Executive: The Crypto Winter is Here, But Almost Over

In a memo, the Bitwise executive said the crypto market has been in a full-blown winter. This is despite the Bitcoin price not fully showing it. Over the months, Bitcoin held up far better than most tokens, slipping far less than the brutal drops seen across the rest of the market.

From the Fear and Greed Index, fear is everywhere, and many traders, especially novices, are confused. Even amid this sell-off, the Bitcoin price is relatively calm, holding steady above 2021 highs, and looking likely to bounce strongly, reclaiming the $90,000 in the coming weeks.

The reason Bitcoin is firm at spot rates, Hougan said, is due to institutional support. While outflows were heavier than usual in January, the “big boys” have been buying Bitcoin-backed shares since spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved in early 2024. Additionally, MicroStrategy, MetaPlanet, and other public companies have been “buying the dip,” adding BTC to their balance sheets in January.

Metaplanet has acquired 1241 BTC for ~$126.7 million at ~$102,119 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 170.0% YTD 2025. As of 5/12/2025, we hold 6796 $BTC acquired for ~$608.2 million at ~$89,492 per bitcoin. $MTPLF pic.twitter.com/KXNWl5Hg0d

— Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) May 12, 2025

Their confidence in buying BTC despite the bearish sentiment acted like a sponge, slowing down the bears. Hougan estimates ETFs and digital asset treasuries bought more than 744,000 BTC, worth about $75Bn. Without their involvement, the Bitwise CIO thinks the coin would have easily collapsed below 2021 highs, completely reversing gains from late 2024.

The split shows up clearly. Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin, and other coins with strong institutional access fell roughly -20%. Meanwhile, “naked” tokens, mostly meme coins with high liquidity but without institutional support, fell sharply, shedding upwards of -50% from early October 2030. You can see this pattern in recent ETF outflows hitting crypto and the spike in institutional ETH outflows.

It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin and some of the top meme coins will recover. In the eyes of Hougan, it appears that crypto prices are bottoming and assets are still weathering the tail end of the crypto winter. To support this upbeat outlook, Hougan noted that though crypto sentiment is still in the “extreme fear” zone, fundamentals are stronger than ever.

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Will The Bitcoin Price Melt Faces In 2026?

Hougan is a Bitcoin and crypto bull, and this is not the first time he has made bullish predictions. Earlier, he said he strongly believes the classic four-year crypto cycle, historically driven by the Bitcoin halving, is effectively dead. Hougan argues that 2026 will defy the historical pattern of a post-peak bear year and instead deliver new all-time highs.

To back up this claim, the executive cites diminishing halving impacts and falling interest rates, especially throughout 2025. Additionally, Hougan thinks massive institutional flow via spot Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of more capital from Morgan Stanley will catalyze demand, replacing old price drivers. In the first half of 2026, the Bitwise CIO expects the Bitcoin price to be range-bound, wearing out retailers and flushing speculators before exploding higher.

Morgan Stanley is hiring for dozens of crypto roles and opening the pipes at the same time.

Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF ($BTC) is now available on Morgan Stanley’s platform, opening access to more than $7.4T in advisor AUM.

2026 is going to be explosive for crypto. pic.twitter.com/pXuCvpOkuq

— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) January 27, 2026

Ahead of this, Binance plans to convert its $1Bn stablecoin-dense SAFU into Bitcoin in February. While inflows from Binance market orders will be “dust” compared to institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs once prices begin ticking higher, the mega-exchange is providing a backstop for Bitcoin, which is inherently bullish.

Eyes are also on the CLARITY Act. If this piece of legislation becomes law, it may be the starter gun for crypto prices, including Ethereum and Solana, to tick higher now that institutions will have clearer pathways. With clear laws in the US following the GENIUS Act, tokenization will likely explode, and fresh capital inflows may lift established tokens, primarily Bitcoin.

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The post Bitwise CIO: Crypto Winter Is Real And Near Its End appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

Bitwise CIO: Crypto Winter Is Real And Near Its End