Straight From “Central Casting”: President Trump Confirms Kevin Warsh As Next Fed Chair Nominee

Update (0700ET): As was apparently leaked last night – for a big win on Polymarket – President Trump has just confirmed he is nominating Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed Chair:

“I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM.”

Trump praises Warsh’s background:

Kevin currently serves as the Shepard Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution, and Lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

He is a Partner of Stanley Druckenmiller at Duquesne Family Office LLC. Kevin received his A.B. from Stanford University, and J.D. from Harvard Law School. He has conducted extensive research in the field of Economics and Finance. Kevin issued an Independent Report to the Bank of England proposing reforms in the conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom. Parliament adopted the Report’s recommendations.

Kevin Warsh became the youngest Fed Governor, ever, at 35, and served as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from 2006 until 2011, as the Federal Reserve’s Representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20), and as the Board’s Emissary to the Emerging and Advanced Economies in Asia.

In addition, he was Administrative Governor, managing and overseeing the Board’s operations, personnel, and financial performance. Prior to his appointment to the Board, from 2002 until 2006, Kevin served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and Executive Secretary of the White House National Economic Council. Previously, Kevin was a member of the Mergers & Acquisitions Department at Morgan Stanley & Co., in New York, serving as Vice President and Executive Director.

Trump already putting Warsh on a podium:

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.

On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down.

Congratulations Kevin!”

President Trump praised the other candidates…

Does Trump really know who he is picking?

Here’s Bloomberg economist Anna Wong pointing out Warsh’s not-so-easy-on-inflation background:

Here we chart his inflation assessment during the FOMC meeting from 2006-2011 (along the unemployment rate, with core PCE inflation in the background).

One standout one:

April 2009 – 7 months after Lehman,  core PCE inflation at 0.8%, unemployment at 9%, he said:

“I continue to be more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks.”

How long before we get one of these tweets…

All of which got us wondering…

Hey @polymarket who replaces Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair when Trump fires him?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2026

Precious metals are bouncing a little on the news (sell the rumor, buy the news?)

*  *  *

It all started a little after 7pm ET when, refuting a previous report that he would announce the next Fed Chair next week, Trump said that he would unveil his pick for Powell’s replacement on Friday morning.

That’s also when the Polymarket odds of Kevin Warsh exploded higher (after a curious reversal we observed an hour earlier, when Warsh overtook Rick Reider, indicating that once again someone knew something ahead of time), following a report from a journalist that “Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair — and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told. Nothing is official I’m told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod.“

🚨SCOOP: Trump met 2day with his two finalists for Fed Reserve chair — and is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told.

Nothing is official I’m told. But 1 source close to Trump says Warsh basically has the wink & the nod.

KEVIN HASSETT is out. RICK…

— Rachael Bade (@rachaelmbade) January 29, 2026

That’s when Warsh went from slight lead, to full-on favorite at Polymarket.

And less than an hour later Warsh is at 83%, on a journalist tweet that “Trump is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I’m told.” https://t.co/ymwoiXHD9F pic.twitter.com/dOf7WXjBFl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 30, 2026

And as many were wondering if this was just a trial balloon, one which sent futures, bitcoin and gold lower, and dollar and yields higher, a flashing red Bloomberg headline confirmed this was not a drill:

• *TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAID TO BE PREPARING WARSH FED NOMINATION

The report, predictably, said just what one would expect:

The Trump administration is preparing for the president to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair, according to people familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump said Thursday he plans to announce his pick to lead the US central bank on Friday morning.

Echoing what we already learned earlier, the report went on to note that “Warsh, a former Fed governor and one of the four finalists on Trump’s shortlist to be the next central bank leader, visited the White House on Thursday, one person said.”

The president teased his impending announcement without giving the name away Thursday evening, saying the pick won’t be too surprising and will be someone known to everyone in the financial world. 

“A lot of people think this is somebody that could’ve been there a few years ago,” Trump said. It wasn’t clear however if Trump knew that his nominee would spark a crash in the one asset class that makes up the bulk of his net worth, namely bitcoin, which had a catastrophic day earlier, and which plunged even more on the Bloomberg confirmation.

It wasn’t just bitcoin: futures also fell, the dollar and treasury yields pushed higher (i.e., making housing not more affordable), and gold crashed again, on bets Warsh – best known as one of the most hawkish former Fed officials, often arguing for tighter monetary policy and a smaller Fed balance sheet, and who changed his tune only recently in hopes to ingratiate himself with Trump

It is unclear if Trump (or rather his advisors) knew any of this, which is why there is still the possibility that once Trump sees the impact of this particular trial balloon, will change his mind as even Bloomberg’s sources cautioned that the selection is not final until Trump makes a formal announcement.

In the end, nobody knows what will come out of Trump’s mouth until some time tomorrow. We would not be surprised at all if it is, again, a huge surprise. If not, we already know how this will end…

The “LOW ENERGY KEVIN” posts are probably already sitting in the drafts😅

Trump is hiring a Hawk expecting a Dove, we’ve seen this movie before… pic.twitter.com/W23U6ZOt5J

— Karol Kozicki (@k2__investment) January 30, 2026