A Christmas Carol For The Markets, 2025 Edition

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

As the year draws to a close, Ebenezer “Macro” Scrooge looks back on an eventful 2025. Sitting alone in his glass-walled office on Christmas Eve, the city below twinkling like a Bloomberg terminal in night mode. His screens glowed with charts: yield curves steepening, equities hitting all-time highs, and a lonely alert blinking – “Critical raw materials shortage: nutmeg unavailable.”

“Bah, tariffs!” he grumbled, stabbing at his keyboard. “Christmas is inefficient. If only people understood the beauty of a well-balanced trade account.”

The year had been brutal on his nerves: Trump’s tariff threats in January, the April Global Tariff Shock. And even if the US Supreme Court decides to annul those tariffs, refunding the collected import tariffs would create a “major problem”, Kevin Hassett, US economic policy advisor and shortlisted for replacing Powell, noted over the weekend.

And the list goes on… China’s rare earth export controls in October, and wars that rattled energy markets. Even Scrooge’s Christmas tree had become a macroeconomic case study – 15% pricier thanks to US import tariffs. And the cake for this week’s party? Delayed because nutmeg and cinnamon were now a geopolitical pawn. The EU and China aren’t of much help either. EU-China relations have changed dramatically this year: yesterday China levied tariffs of up to 42.7% on some dairy products from the bloc.  And thinking about getting stuff from the North to the South pole? Well, shipping isn’t what it used to be!

As the clock struck midnight, a chill swept through the room. Suddenly, a shimmering figure appeared – the Ghost of Christmas Past, dressed in a suit stitched from old bond certificates.

“Ebenezer,” the ghost intoned, “look back at 2025.”

The office dissolved into January’s chaos: Trump inaugurated, markets jittering at threats of 25% tariffs on autos and semiconductors. February brought German elections and a €500bn debt-fuelled spending spree. April’s tariff shock loomed large, sending reciprocal tariffs ricocheting across continents. In the UK, Reform UK may, someday, Reform the Bank. And France still has got no 2026 budget! Scrooge watched traders panic, algorithms whirring like snowblowers in a storm.

“Remember the fear?” the ghost asked. “Yet markets proved resilient. AI investments and consumer spending kept growth alive. Oil prices have kept falling; the US blockade of Venezuelan oil has only dented that move. And even Europe, with its post-NATO summit defence roadmap and green-tech push, surprised you.”

Scrooge snorted. “Resilient? My stress index hit a record high.”

Before he could argue, the Ghost of Christmas Present appeared – a lively spirit juggling ornaments labelled “Geopolitics,” “AI,” and “Interest Rates”;  It whisked him to a bustling Christmas market. Families laughed despite the higher prices of gifts and trees.

“See?” said the ghost. “People adapt. They value togetherness over tariffs. Even after war in the Middle East, after shutdowns and rare earth scares, they choose negotiations and peace at their tables. And let’s hope that is also a prospect for the Sudanese and Ukrainian people.”

Scrooge noticed a baker struggling with a half-finished cake. “Critical raw materials,” the ghost chuckled. “China’s export controls made nutmeg a luxury. But look – some kind of monetary policy will still be made and neighbours share what they have. The cake will be baked.”

“Sharing?” Scrooge frowned. “Sounds like fiscal transfers.”

The ghost winked. “Call it social capital. Higher ROI than any hedge fund.”

Finally, the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come appeared, shrouded in clouds of uncertainty like a long-term yield curve. It showed Scrooge a future where his firm ignored human values, chasing only returns. The office was empty, silent – no laughter, no warmth.

“This,” the ghost whispered, “is the cost of forgetting what matters.”

Scrooge trembled. “No! Tell me the future can change!”

He awoke on Christmas morning, heart pounding like a trader’s after a Fed rate cut announcement. Throwing open the window, he saw delivery drones buzzing in with gifts – late, but arriving. The baker waved: the cake was done, thanks to a last-minute spice swap. Scrooge smiled for the first time in years. He cancelled his meeting on tariff hedging and joined his family, raising a toast:

“To resilience – in markets and in life! May our yield curves steepen with joy, not stress.”

And so, despite a year of shocks – tariffs, wars, shutdowns, and shortages – Christmas triumphed. Not through perfect policy or flawless forecasts, but through the enduring power of connection. Even Ebenezer Macro Scrooge learned that while currencies weaken and spreads tighten, the true value lies in being present.

….

Dear reader, this was just a small selection of some of the most eye-catching developments we wrote about in 2025. With this last Global Daily, we thank you for your attention and all the feedback we have received. Our service resumes on 5 January. We look forward to do it all over again in 2026!

Happy Holidays!