Goldman Tracks “Lovely Polar Vortex Spinning Into Third Week”

Waking up across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday morning, temperatures are hovering in the upper single digits in some spots, especially in interior areas west of the I-95 corridor. Those regions have already seen their first accumulating snow, marking an early start to winter.

Goldman sales trader Ranald Falconer updated clients on weather forecasts and natural gas markets, noting that persistent cold continues to grip the eastern half of the US, while the western part of the country is experiencing well-above-seasonal temperatures.

In the gas space, I just had a glance through Sam’s note over the weekend; definitely worth a read if you are looking at gas dynamics into next year and beyond. Forecast short term in North America looks mild across the West Coast but well below in the East over the next 10 days; our lovely polar vortex looks to be spinning and behaving into the 3rd week of December, but it’s southern edge has been spilling colder air into Alaska for the last week.

This colder than normal winter in the US is driving us to leave our end of Oct26 storage balances at a relatively low level; this leaves Winter 26/27 vulnerable to tightening shocks. We maintain our $4.50/mmBtu Summer 2026 NYMEX gas price forecast, though we close our long Apr26 trading recommendation given Summer 2026 forwards are now well above our estimated marginal cost of production. This morning I have Summer 26 HH settling at $4.004 and Cal26 $4.203.

Most important takeaway for me was the impact on continued LNG growth; potential to lead NW European storage into congestion and push TTF and JKM prices low enough to reduce LNG incentives, closing the US LNG export arb and putting pressure on Henry Hub. Flagging our $2.70/$2.75/mmBtu 2028/29 NYMEX gas price forecast, well below current forwards at $3.80/$3.71

Touching on U.S. NatGas futures, unusually cold weather across parts of the Lower 48 – mostly the eastern half – sent prices sharply higher in recent weeks and months, rising from about $3.50/MMBtu at the end of October to a peak near $5.50 last week. Warmer forecasts heading into Christmas have since driven a roughly 14% pullback.

After roughly six weeks of unseasonably cold weather across the Lower 48, a warmup appears to be materializing by the middle of the month.

But then there’s this…

NOAA flagship model GFS keeps forecasting devastating cold into Christmas.

Keep stretching/pulling on polar vortex, eventually it wrecks, and cold blasts out.

Surface pressure patterns here (Day 16) would be unprecedented in 21st Century. pic.twitter.com/w2Vvcp6OjX

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 8, 2025