Support for NATO Reaches New High in Reagan Institute Polling

More than three-fourths of Americans would support using force to support NATO’s collective defense, according to the Ronald Reagan Institute’s latest annual National Defense Survey.

“Around the world, Americans want to reinforce, not retreat from, U.S. global interests and commitments,” the Reagan Institute wrote in an analysis of its results. “Support for aiding Ukraine and defending Taiwan has grown, along with approval of NATO and Article V commitments. Americans see alliances as important to U.S. security, even as many also favor a greater focus on the Western Hemisphere and securing the homeland.”

The report comes as the Pentagon prepares to unveil its new National Defense Strategy, the lodestar for multiyear planning. It is expected to emphasize security in the Western Hemisphere, homeland defense, and actions in the Indo-Pacific to deter China. The Pentagon recently said it would remove a combat brigade from the southeastern flank of NATO, and the strategy is expected to stress that European nations should take the lead role in defending the continent. 

That would mark a departure from the Biden administration’s strategy and that of the first Trump administration, rolled out in 2018, which introduced the concept of “great power competition” with China and Russia. 

A plurality of poll respondents—44 percent—said the U.S. military should be sized such that it is large enough to win separate wars against China and Russia simultaneously, up slightly from last year. A further 20 percent of respondents said the U.S. should be able to win a war against China and one with a smaller adversary such as Iran or North Korea at the same time. Just 11 percent favor a military focused mainly on the Western Hemisphere.

“It wasn’t intuitive to me that this is where the American people would land on this question, but it’s quite clear that they think we should be able to address two areas at the same time,” said Roger Zakheim, the director of Reagan Institute, and a former Pentagon official and Congressional staffer. “It’s quite significant in my mind, as we engage and learn about what the Trump administration’s National Defense Strategy will or will not be.”

The survey questioned 2,507 U.S. adults in late October to early November selected by a bipartisan group of polling firms.

The Trump administration has argued that European countries should pay more for their own defense has stopped footing the bill for weapons transfers to Ukraine, although it does allow NATO allies to purchase weapons for Ukraine and has signed foreign military sales contracts with European nations. 

NATO allies, concerned about Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and responding to American pressure, have pledged increased defense spending. At the alliance’s annual meeting in June, NATO members pledged to invest 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense and national security by 2035.

That pledge appears to have influenced attitudes in the U.S., where 68 percent of Americans now report a favorable view of NATO, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2018. And 76 percent of Americans would support the U.S. military coming to the defense of a NATO ally under the treaty’s Article V collective defense clause. 

Support for Ukraine is also high, as it has been in years past. A majority of Americans—62 percent overall– want Ukraine to prevail over Russia. Broken down by political party, 57 percent of Republicans back Ukraine, while Kyiv has support from 72 percent of Democrats

A majority of Americans would favor providing U.S. military support to Ukraine: 64 percent said they support sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine, a nine-point increase in the past year. Approval rises to 68 percent when Europeans are footing the bill for American weapons for Ukraine.

The majority favor giving Ukraine long-range strike capabilities, with 65 percent in favor providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, a step President Trump has considered but not taken so far.  

If a ceasefire were reached, support for Ukraine’s long-term security, backed by the U.S. and European allies, is strong. Sixty-nine percent of respondents favor an Article V-like arrangement for Ukraine. Just under three-fourths of Americans—74 percent—said they would support a European-led peacekeeping force on the ground, backed by the U.S. airpower.

“Together, these findings show that Americans’ bipartisan commitment to Ukraine has strengthened over the past year,” the Reagan Institute analysis states. “The public favors a strategy that combines sustained U.S. support, European burden-sharing, and credible deterrence over territorial concessions or premature disengagement.”

Growing support for U.S. allies extends to Asia, with 60 percent of Americans in support of the U.S. military defending Taiwan in case of an invasion by China. That’s up significantly from last year, when just 48 percent were in favor.

“Our findings show that Americans want the United States to lead globally, maintain a military strong enough to deter authoritarian adversaries, and stand by allies who are on the front lines of defending freedom,” the Institute concluded.