XWIN Research Japan: BTC May Stay In $60K–$80K Range If Fed Holds Rates

November has been a reality check of sorts for Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action. The crypto gold was riding high off its success in creating an ATH of $126,000 in October, and the broader crypto market thought that the era of massive BTC liquidations was over.

Well, we all got rugpulled, didn’t we?

Bitcoin
BTC

$87,361.04

0.45%

Bitcoin
BTC

Price

$87,361.04

0.45% /24h

Volume in 24h

$73.06B
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Price 7d

dropped from $126,000 and kept declining, erasing all the gains from earlier this year. In the last 24 hours, its price action briefly dipped below $90,000, touching $88,000 before bulls stepped in to control the losses.

Since then, BTC has bounced off modestly and is trading above the $90,000 support level, with chances of declining further. According to XWIN Research Japan, BTC might stay stuck between $60,000 and $80,000 until the end of the year if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting.

The upcoming Fed meeting is shaping up to be one of the most uncertain ones in years, and has the market caught up in analysis paralysis. Furthermore, the recent US government shutdown has delayed key economic reports such as job data for October and November, giving policymakers limited room to maneuver.

Just a couple of weeks earlier, the market expected another rate cut in December. However, now, the probability of a rate cut has fallen to around 40%-50%.

Bitcoin Range Outlook if the Fed Does Not Cut Rates in December

“If the Fed does not cut in December, Bitcoin likely trades between 60,000 and 80,000 dollars into year-end.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/u4gNtzIrhM

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 20, 2025

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$72 Billion Stablecoin Reserves On The Sidelines: Will They Stabilize BTC Price Action?

Historically, if monetary policy remains tight, it pulls money away from riskier assets like crypto.

When it became apparent that the Fed would not be cutting rates in December, the crypto market entered into a downturn from which it hasn’t been able to properly rebound.

Now, if the Fed decides not to cut interest rates in December, analysts believe that BTC could stay stuck in this limbo and move sideways in a narrow price range. In today’s market setup, traders are using leverage, i.e., borrowed money, and are especially at risk because there’s less cash flowing in the system.

According to the research, “If the Fed chooses not to cut, the logic is straightforward: inflation remains near 3%, officials worry about easing too early, and missing data make policymakers more cautious. This scenario typically keeps liquidity tight and risk appetite muted.”

$BTC is consolidating around the $92,000 level.

US stock futures are up after strong NVIDIA earnings, while VIX is down.

Pre-market stock trading insights:

Nasdaq futures is up 1.7%

S&P futures is up 1.25% pic.twitter.com/pwvWpUvUHC

— Ted (@TedPillows) November 20, 2025

Still, there are chances of a rebound. Stablecoin reserves on crypto exchanges have hit a record $72.2 billion, which means a lot of money is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right moment to re-enter the market. In fact, every major BTC rally in 2025 started out with a similar buildup of stablecoins.

If the Fed holds off on cutting rates, analysts expect BTC to trade between $60,000 and $80,000 through the end of the year. At the moment, its price is being held by cautious investor sentiment and likely will not break till traders feel more confident about the Fed’s next move.

“The liquidity is there, but macro uncertainty is preventing deployment,” the research indicated. The big question now is if the stablecoin stash will stay parked on the sidelines or start flowing into BTC once the policy uncertainty clears.

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The Fundamentals Are Strong: Analysts Downplay Crypto Winter Fears

While the market has declined for the better part of November, analysts still believe that the current downturn looks more like a macro-driven correction rather than the start of a crypto winter.

They pointed to institutional interest and adoption, regulatory progress, and sector resilience as signs of the sector’s strong fundamentals and foundations.

Bitwise’s Danny Nelson and HashKey’s Tim Sun both argued that the market is far from a full-blown winter.

They noted that, unlike previous collapses, the current cycle has not seen a catastrophic event like FTX, and that infrastructure improvements, from tokenization to stablecoin expansion, continue to strengthen the ecosystem.

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Key Takeaways

BTC price dropped from $126K to $88K, erasing all 2025 gains
XWIN Research Japan expects BTC to trade between $60K–$80K if Fed skips rate cut
$72 billion in stablecoins may enable a rebound once policy uncertainty clears

The post XWIN Research Japan: BTC May Stay In $60K–$80K Range If Fed Holds Rates appeared first on 99Bitcoins.

XWIN Research Japan: BTC May Stay In $60K–$80K Range If Fed Holds Rates