Dutch Cast Ballots In Knife-Edge Election, Crucial Test For Geert Wilders & The Right

There is an extremely tight race on between Geert Wilders’ Party For Freedom (PVV), which is often dubbed in mainstream media as ‘far right’, and more ‘moderate’ parties, including the Green Left Labour Party (GL-PvdA), center-left D66 and centrist Christian Democratic Party (CDA) – as Dutch voters cast their ballots across the Netherlands on Wednesday in a close-run snap election.

Key national issues include reining in migration, chronic shortages of affordable housing, high cost of living, national security questions in relation to the Ukraine war and purchasing US military equipment for Ukraine, as well as forming a stable government amid an increasingly polarized Netherlands political scene. While Wilders’ PVV is favored, chances are slim that other parties will work with it to form a coalition, as happened last June. The political winds are blowing to the center, most analysts believe. 

Polls have indicated that even a victory at the ballot box for Wilders will not easily translate into forming a government. Wilders emerged as the clear winner in the previous election in November 2023, but recent polls suggest his support has slipped ahead of Wednesday’s vote.

Rival parties have increasingly ruled out cooperating with him following the collapse of his own governing alliance last June.

“It’s up to the voters today,” Wilders said after casting his vote at The Hague City Hall, surrounded by security guards. “It’s a close call…four or five different parties. I’m confident.”

European media has widely anticipated that the next Dutch government, which could be more influenced by who comes in second in the vote rather than the first, will more likely to come from the center left or center right.

Polls showed over a third of voters to be undecided even up to the eve of the election. “It’s one of the most important elections, because people need to have their faith restored,” Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, has described.

According to a new BBC review of what’s at stake on Wednesday:

As many as 15 parties are set to win a share of parliament’s 150 seats, but opinion polls suggest four will stand out. Apart from Wilders’ PVV, there is GreenLeft-Labour under ex-EU top official Frans Timmermans, Rob Jetten’s liberal D66 and the centre-right Christian Democrats of Henri Bontenbal.

And The Guardian reviews some key elements of this election as follows:

• The PVV, which finished a shock first in the last election and formed a short-lived, four-party rightwing coalition, has seen its once sizeable lead fade fast. With nearly half the electorate undecided, analysts say the race is too tight to call.
• Final polling averages suggest Wilders’ party could win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament, well down on the 37 it captured in the 2023 elections. Even if it does finish first, all major parties have ruled out going into government with the anti-immigration firebrand.
• Wilders pulled the plug on the outgoing government in June, less than a year after it took office, when the PVV’s coalition partners refused to endorse his radical anti-refugee plans, widely seen as unworkable or illegal.

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Michael Every of Rabobank comments in the following…

In the UK, the new far-left Your Party will launch legal action against three of its ‘rogue’ founders, according to sources, leaving people asking, ‘Whose Party?’ and ‘Whose donation money?’; and

There is a Dutch general election today, where the Netherlands is rightly glued to its own screen and the rest of the world (and markets) likely aren’t, barring a totally unexpected outcome. After all, Politico quotes one of the major party’s election platforms as ‘Make Boring Great Again’.