Why Tesla’s Q4 performance could shock many after incredible Q3

Max Headroom 2025.10.03 3 min read

Tesla reported vehicle deliveries and energy deployments for the third quarter of 2025 today, blowing analyst estimations from Wall Street firms completely out of the water with its strongest three-month performance in company history.

The strong performance, which resulted in nearly half a million vehicle deliveries in the quarter, was largely driven by the momentum of the EV tax credit, which expired at the end of September, marking the end of the $7,500 discount that was previously available.

Tesla hits record vehicle deliveries and energy deployments in Q3 2025

This was a massive contributor to Tesla’s record-high in vehicle deliveries, as consumers rushed to take advantage of the credit.

There is still some residual impact to be felt as we enter Q4, and there is a potential shock coming to many investors as it could be stronger than what many think:

EV Tax Credit Deliveries Will Continue Through Q4

Despite the credit’s expiration, people will still be able to take advantage of it because the IRS changed the rules mid-quarter.

Prospective buyers can utilize the credit after September 30 if they place an order for an EV and make a marginal payment on the car.

Tesla’s $250 order deposit qualified as the marginal payment, so as long as the order was submitted before the end of the day on September 30, they could still take delivery in Q4 or even Q1 and still take advantage of the credit.

Tesla set to win big after IRS adjusts EV tax credit rules

With the Model Y Performance launching in the U.S. on September 30, that undoubtedly contributed to some orders. However, there are likely many people who ordered in the latter portion of Q3 and have not yet taken delivery. These will all contribute to Q4 delivery figures.

Seasonal Holiday Boost

Tesla traditionally has its strongest quarters in Q4, as the company typically introduces initiatives such as price cuts, incentives, and other offers to close out the year strong.

Car buyers are more likely to jump at these offers as well, as gifts for either themselves or others. What Tesla does in the final quarter of the year is usually boosted by whatever types of offers it can make.

Affordable Model Production Ramp

Tesla is likely preparing for the launch of its affordable model, which is essentially a stripped-down Model Y.

Some rumors have been circulating within the community, indicating that the company is nearing the sale of this vehicle, which is coded within Tesla’s website as the “Model Y Standard.”

Looks like some coding was found on Tesla’s website that seems to hint the affordable Model Y is coming:

-Named “Model Y Standard”
-$39,990 starting price

Initial thoughts: this is completely unconfirmed, but was really hoping Tesla would get this closer to $30,000 https://t.co/RDR0ypQHB3

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 1, 2025

If Tesla is able to lock in some good pricing on its affordable model, Tesla could see its quarterly figures return to QoQ growth, something that the company has not had in a few years.

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