Shutdown Odds Spike After House GOP Refuse To Bring Chamber Into Session: Report

Update (11450ET): It seems like everyone wants a shutdown this time. As Democrat leaders are being pressured by a coalition of federal unions to ‘hold the line’ and fight back against budget cuts to ‘critical public services’ even if it leads to a shutdown and mass layoffs, Republicans appear to have called their bluff ahead of a Sept. 1 deadline.

According to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman, House Republicans on today’s conference call indicated that House and Senate GOP leadership will have a joint news conference Wednesday morning – the day of the shutdown – and they won’t bring the House back into session until next week. 

House GOP leadership seems unlikely to bring the chamber into session at all this week – -shutdown week. https://t.co/UlGyFZsavY

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) September 29, 2025

The White House, meanwhile, tells Politico that President Trump will push congressional Democrats to back a House-passed stopgap bill during an Oval Office sitdown Monday, less than 48 hours before the shutdown. 

“Let me be very clear about the president and the White House’s position: All we are asking for is a common-sense, clean funding resolution, a continuing resolution to keep the government open,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a Monday interview on Fox News. “The president is giving Democrat leadership one last chance to be reasonable, to come to the White House today to try to talk about this,” she added.

Yet, according to Sherman, and Polymarket, a shutdown is in the cards. 

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Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Democratic and Republican congressional leaders are digging their heels in ahead of a critical meeting with President Donald Trump to avoid a potential government shutdown this week, each pinning the blame for any negotiations that fail tomorrow on the opposing party.

Trump agreed to meet with Senate and House leaders of both parties on Sept. 29 to hopefully broker a deal to pass a continuing resolution to keep the government funded until a long-term spending bill can be passed.

Democrats say that Republicans need to agree to extend certain tax subsidies for the Affordable Care Act Marketplace—also known as Obamacare—that were passed in 2021 as part of the American Rescue Plan and are set to expire at the end of the year.

Republicans are countering by saying the tax subsidy discussion can occur after passing a continuing resolution to keep the government afloat in the short term, saying the Affordable Care Act is beset by “waste, fraud, and abuse.”

A government shutdown is “totally up to the Democrats,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sept. 27.

“The ball is in their court,” he said. “So this decision, in my judgment, at this point in time, is up to a handful of Democrats. We need eight Democrats to pass it through the Senate, something that 13 times, when the Democrats had the majority over the last four years and President [Joe] Biden was in the White House, Republicans helped Democrats do.”

He said the tax credits don’t expire until the end of the year and that Democrats need to “release the hostage” on refusing to approve the continuing resolution before having that conversation on health care.

“That particular program is desperately in need of reform. It’s fraught with waste, fraud, and abuse, so we are going to have to have reforms if we take action there,” Thune said. “But I think there’s potentially a path forward.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said his coalition has been pushing for a meeting and “real negotiation” with Trump present, saying “we need the president as part of it.”

“We need Speaker Johnson; let the four leaders and the president sit down,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sept. 28, referring to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and the meeting with Trump scheduled for 2 p.m. on Sept. 29.

Schumer said the Democrats are focused on health care.

“Rural hospitals are closing. People are going to get notices of $4,000-a-year increase in their premiums. So our job is to represent the people of America,” he said. “So far, they’ve stonewalled and said we’re not discussing any of that, and we’ll see if it changes.”

Johnson said Trump is always open to talks but wants to “operate in good faith, so he decided to bring us all in.”

“He wants to talk with Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries and just try to convince them to follow common sense and do what’s right by the American people,” Johnson told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sept. 28. “It’s important to point out the only thing we are trying to do is buy a little time.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that negotiations would hinge on “find[ing] a path forward to actually fix the health care system that Republicans have broken for the good of everyone.” He was referring to the expiring tax credits and cuts to Medicaid included in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this year.

Johnson called the statement “absolutely absurd.”

“The [topic of] Obamacare subsidies is a policy debate that has to be determined by the end of the year, Dec. 31,” Johnson said. “Not right now, while we’re simply trying to keep the government open so we can have all these debates.”

CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Johnson about health care experts who have said that Americans’ premiums could increase by as much as 75 percent—as early as October—if the Obamacare subsidies expire without extension, and pressed the House leader if he’s “worried at all that those people might blame Republicans for those health care costs, for the insurance costs going up.”

“No, they’re not being truthful about that,” Johnson said. “The program doesn’t expire until the end of December, so we have time to have all those discussions and debates.”

Lawrence Wilson contributed to this report.