US Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since May As Inflation Expectations Calc Completely Broken

Tyler Durden 2025.09.12 2 min read

US consumer sentiment tumbled for the second month in a row in the just released preliminary September data, down from 58.2 to 55.4, far below the median estimates of 58.0 (in fact it was below all estimates), with both Current Conditions (61.0, Last 61.7) and Expectations (51.8, Last 55.9) declining.

“Consumers’ expected probability of personal job loss grew sharply this year and ticked up in September as well,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement, “suggesting that consumers are indeed concerned that they may be personally affected by any negative developments in labor markets.”

“Moreover, consumers also feel squeezed by the persistence of high prices,” she added.

Curiously Republicans and Independents saw their optimism (i.e. expectations) slide fractionally – while Democrats oddly rose – although while it narrowed modestly, the spread between Dems and Reps remains near a record high.

After plunging back to reality for two months, inflation expectations resumed their ascent especially on the longer-end horizon: year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.8% after jumping in July from 4.5%, while long-run (5-10) inflation unexpectedly jumped from 3.5% in August to 3.9%, higher than the expected decline to 3.4% and the highest since June.

What is bizarre here, is that once again the Marxist UMich professors grabbed at straws to paint as bleak a picture as possible, and while both Republican and Independent 5Yr inflation expectations dropped substantially, and Democrats rose by the smallest possible 0.1%, the average somehow magically surged by 0.4% to 3.9%!!

It gets better… and by better we mean dumber: 1 Year inflation expectations dropped across every single party: Dems down 0.5%; Republicans down 0.1%, Independent down 0.4%, and yet the average was… unchanged!