Exxon Sees 20% Gas Demand Growth By 2050, U.S. Nearing Records In 2025

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Exxon projects global natural gas demand will rise more than 20% by 2050 from 2024 levels, driven by coal displacement in industry and growing electricity use in emerging markets, according to a Reuters report.

The outlook underpins Exxon’s long-term strategy, including an 18% production increase over five years. Oil demand is expected to plateau after 2030 but remain above 100 million barrels per day through 2050, while oil and gas together hold around 55% of the global energy mix, the report said. The company frames gas as a key transition fuel for industrial heat and dispatchable power where coal remains entrenched.

In the near term, U.S. consumption is on course for new highs. Domestic gas demand is set to reach record levels in 2025, supported by power generation and expanding LNG exports from the Gulf Coast. Added liquefaction capacity and peak summer electricity needs are cited as the main drivers, with commercial start-ups at new terminals reinforcing structural demand for Henry Hub-linked supply.

Exxon’s projections highlight industrial demand as a pillar for gas, with the fuel helping to displace coal in energy-intensive processes and grid balancing. The company also sees gasoline consumption falling about 25% by 2050 as electric-vehicle adoption accelerates, while demand for distillates such as diesel and jet fuel remains comparatively resilient, reflecting aviation and heavy-duty transport needs, the Reuters report said.

Regional variation remains significant in the outlook. Emerging Asia drives most incremental gas use, while OECD power systems integrate more renewables alongside flexible gas-fired generation. Exxon’s modeling assumes continued efficiency gains and methane-abatement progress, with supply growth concentrated in North America, the Middle East, and select LNG basins.

Exxon estimates energy-related CO2 emissions at roughly 27 billion metric tons by 2050, which represents a ~25% decline from current emissions, though this is still above levels aligned with UN goals. These figures and sectoral shifts are detailed in the company’s global outlook.