WTI Tumbles On Trump Iran Comments, Despite Massive Crude Inventory Draw

Crude prices are down modestly this morning despite ongoing attacks between Iran and Israel and API reporting a major crude draw overnight as President Trump said Iran has reached out and wants to negotiate.

When asked about possible Iran strikes, Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

Meantime, Trump also said he told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “keep going.”

So geopolitical risk premia are far from over.

Additionally, Russian flows rose only very marginally in the last four weeks, limiting downward price pressures.

API

• Crude -10.133mm  (-600k exp)

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline -202k

• Distillates +318k

DOE

• Crude -11.47mm (-600k exp, -2.8mm Whisper) – biggest build since June 2024

• Cushing -995k

• Gasoline +209k

• Distillates +514k

The offoicial data confirmed API’s with a huge crude drawdown (the biggest since June 2024). We also saw a third straight week of product builds…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the plungng rig count, US crude production remains near record highs (for now)…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI tumbled ahead of the official data on Trump’s comments on Iran seeking peace.. bounced very briefly on the huge crude draw…

Source: Bloomberg

…but the main driver for prices right now continues to be the potential for Israel-Iran war escalations.