Is ‘Soft’ Survey Data About To Explode Higher?

For all the terrified FUD being spread that ‘soft’ sentiment surveys are the real deal and ‘hard’ data is simply not reflecting the terrible Trump-tariff-driven economic chaos… yet… it appears the establishment economists may have to rethink their ideas as – just like in Q2 2023 – ‘soft’ survey data is starting to reverse higher as ‘hard’ data refuses to bend the knee to the terror…

Source: Bloomberg

The jump this morning was driven by a shocking (to some) surge in the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey which surged from -26.4 to -4.0 (considerably better than the -11.0 expected). Even more notably, the 6 months-ahead business conditions index rose by 40.3pt to +47.2.

The composition of the report was mixed, as the employment (+16.3pt to +16.5) and new orders (+41.7pt to +7.5) components both increased while the shipments component declined (-3.9pt to -13.0). 

The prices paid (+8.8pt to +59.8) and prices received (+12.9pt to +43.6) measures both increased…

And looking our six months, Prices Paid are expected to decline modestly while New Orders and Employment expectations surged…

Did we just pass peak pessimism? 

As Bloomberg reports, aggregating survey components using a method similar to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, both indexes rose and pointed toward expansion in May. 

The New York index rose to 51.1 from 49.3, and the Philadelphia index rose to 51.2 from 45.3. That suggests the ISM manufacturing PMI will likely rise in May, from April’s low base.

Will the whining establishment elites fall back to the old “just wait and see” argument… or some “transitory” argument for why suddenly optimism appears to peeking out from behind the dark cloud?