Trade Truce Set To Ignite “Red Hot” Front-Running Of Chinese Exports To US; Goldman

The so-called “breakthrough” trade deal between the U.S. and China on Monday slashes reciprocal tariffs and sets off a 90-day cooling period—one that Goldman analyst Philip Sun says will likely spark a surge of imports into U.S. ports. Far from the doom-and-gloom headlines pushed by leftist corporate media about “empty ports” and “empty shelves,” the incoming round of frontrunning by importers exposes those narratives as little more than misinformation and disinformation. 

The 90-day pause begins on Wednesday. This means President Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports will be slashed to 30%, while Beijing will reduce its levies from 125% to 10%. The breakthrough in trade talks follows U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s high-stakes meeting with Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland over the weekend.

Now that U.S. importers have a clear runway of dramatically reduced import costs for three months, Goldman’s Sun asked Tuesday: “Just imagine: given the 90-day tariff pause, how eager the Chinese exporters and American importers would be in rushing the orders?” 

The analyst followed up with another question: “We live in a highly uncertain world. Who knows what might happen after 90 days? (or even within). Should the Wal-Marts of the world try to stock up as many Christmas items as possible, perhaps not only for 2025, maybe even for 2026, too?” 

All great questions.

Sun answered his own question with a bold forecast: “China’s exports will be RED HOT in the next 90 days. Frontrunning would be the key word.” 

In a separate note, Jefferies analysts pointed out that freight rates on the trans-Pacific shipping route between China and the U.S. have soared from $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit in mid-April to around $2,500 this week. 

“The container sector is positioned for a meaningful improvement in spot rates on two fundamental fronts: a resumption of normal volumes and the beginnings of peak season, which typically commences by July,” Jefferies analysts said, adding, “Given the tighter capacity on the transpacific, ocean carriers are in the driver’s seat to push freight rates meaningfully higher.”

Freight forwarders, such as CMA CGM SA, called the 90-day pause and the move down in the tariff rate between China and the U.S. as “good news.” 

A Maersk spokesman told Bloomberg: “Right now, our customers have gotten 90 days of clarity with reduced tariffs, and we are working hard to help them make the best use of this window.”

“As many exporters might have held up their shipments to the US in April, the substantial tariff rollback is likely to spur a wave of pent-up exports,” Nomura chief China economist Lu Ting wrote in a note on Monday. 

Here’s a live shot of all container ships with a port calling in the U.S. 

Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.

— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) May 12, 2025

The incoming 90-day frontrunning of tariffs will merely destroy the far-left corporate media’s obsession with gloom and doom: “empty ports, empty shelves.”