Canadian Election: CBC Calls Election For Carney As Liberals Remain In Power

Update (2225ET): To the surprise of nobody (aside from a few excited folks about three hours ago), Canada’s liberal party has won Monday’s national elections – with voters electing Mark Carney to a full term as the next Prime Minister according to national broadcaster CBC/Radio Canada.

According to CTV, Carney’s liberals have won a minority (vs. majority).

As of 10:51 p.m EDT, the Liberals had won or were leading in 161 out of 343 ridings. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are set to remain in opposition, with 137 ridings so far. Parties need 172 seats to form a majority.

Poilievre is the fourth consecutive Conservative leader to lose to the Liberals, who have remained in power since 2015.

Canada’s former top banker, Carney replaced an increasingly unpopular Justin Trudeau as prime minister in March. Highlighting his experience steering major economies through economic crises, Carney succeeded in convincing Canadians that he was the best person to tackle affordability issues and take on Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats.

Carney’s victory cements the Liberal Party’s decade in power, which began with Trudeau winning a surprise majority over the Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in October 2015.

The full results will be available later this evening or early Tuesday.

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With Canada’s Atlantic polls now having closed in what will be a deeply consequential election, odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have begun spiking after conservative turnout was reportedly “larger than expected,” according to betting market Kalshi.

Update (2127ET): After some momentary excitement based on a reported ‘larger than expected’ turnout at Canadian polls, betting market odds for conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre have fallen back to the low 20% range. 

🇨🇦 New election results (15% Reported

🔴 Liberal 51%
🔵 Conservative 40%
🟠 NDP 4%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 29, 2025

Stay tuned for more…

Earlier, Polymarket odds were as high as 48% for Poilievre – dropping to a 30% chance as of this writing – but nevertheless in sharp contrast to the 20% odds he’s been hovering around all week.

Only to reverse lower (as seen on this 6h chart)…

You can track the odds in realtime below:

We’re guessing Carney takes it, but there was still money to be made for those who partake…

Poilievre may be worth a punt at 20% pic.twitter.com/9DD6mPQWvF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025

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