Global Food Prices Hit 19-Month High As Upward Momentum Sparks Fears Of Stickiness

The global benchmark for food commodity prices rose in November, reaching its highest level since April 2023. The increase was driven primarily by a surge in vegetable oil prices. What’s particularly concerning is that global food prices have resumed an upward trajectory this year, climbing steadily since the first quarter.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations’ Food Price Index, which tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded foods, averaged 127.5 in November—up 5.7% from a year ago but still 20.4% below its record high in March 2022.

The biggest driver of the overall index was the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index, which jumped 7.5% in November versus October. This marked its second notable increase in two months and a 32% rise compared to the same month one year ago

While the FAO Dairy Price Index moved marginally higher, the other sub-indexes posted declines in November.

Here’s the breakdown of all FAO sub-indexes:

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 7.5 percent in November from October, marking its second large increase in two months and 32 percent higher than its year-earlier level. Global palm oil prices climbed further amid concerns about lower-than-expected output due to excessive rainfall in Southeast Asia. World soyoil prices rose on global import demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil quotations increased as tightening global supply prospects affected their respective markets.

The FAO Dairy Price Index maintained its upward trajectory in November, increasing by 0.6 percent from October, driven by rebounding global import demand for whole milk powder. Butter prices reached a new record level amid strong demand and tight inventories in Western Europe, while cheese prices rose due to limited export availabilities.

The other sub-indexes posted declines in November. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped by 2.7 percent, down 8.0 percent below a year earlier. Global wheat prices declined due to weaker international import demand and increased supplies from the ongoing harvests in the Southern Hemisphere. World maize prices remained stable as strong domestic demand in Brazil and Mexico’s demand for supplies from the United States of America were offset by favorable weather in South America, reduced demand for Ukrainian supplies and seasonal pressure from the ongoing U.S. harvest. The FAO All-Rice Price Index declined by 4.0 percent in November, driven by increased market competition, harvest pressures and currency fluctuations.

The FAO Sugar Price Index declined by 2.4 percent from October, impacted by the start of the crushing season in India and Thailand and eased concerns over next year’s sugarcane crop prospects in Brazil, where recent rains have improved soil moisture.

The FAO Meat Price Index decreased by 0.8 percent in November, due mainly to lower quotations for pig meat in the European Union, reflecting abundant supplies and persistently subdued global and domestic demand. World ovine and poultry meat prices fell slightly, while international bovine meat quotations remained stable, with higher Brazilian export prices offset by lower Australia prices.

Readers have been well-informed this year about global food inflation re-accelerating. We said in June…

This was followed by a big jump in global food prices in September. 

Global Food Prices Jump Most In 18 Months As Supermarket Inflation Storm Worsens https://t.co/zJgI3QvqBZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2024

Global food prices hitting 19-month highs in November is momentum going in the wrong direction for consumers. This also shows how food prices are very sticky.