Fat Bubble Popped: Lilly Shares Dive On Disappointing Weight-Loss Drug Sales

Shares of Eli Lilly & Co tumbled in premarket trading after third-quarter sales of its blockbuster weight-loss drug fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, with the company citing ‘inventory issues’ as the reason. In reality, it seems Lilly channeled stuffed GLP1s to cash in on the anti-obesity drug craze, only to discover demand fizzled in the quarter—likely because these drugs are expensive and insurance coverage is limited.

Lilly reported third-quarter revenue from all products of about $11.4 billion, +20% yoy, yet missed the Bloomberg Consensus of $12.18. Notably, the drug Mounjaro generated $3.11 billion in revenue, while weight-loss drug Zepbound brought in $1.26 billion. Bloomberg analysts expected $3.62 billion and $1.63 billion.

Here’s a snapshot of the third-quarter earnings report (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS $1.18 vs. 10c y/y
Revenue $11.44 billion, +20% y/y, estimate $12.18 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Trulicity revenue $1.30 billion, -22% y/y, estimate $1.21 billion
Mounjaro revenue $3.11 billion, estimate $3.62 billion
Zepbound revenue $1.26 billion, +1.2% q/q, estimate $1.63 billion
Humalog revenue $534.6 million, +35% y/y, estimate $423.6 million
Taltz revenue $879.6 million, +18% y/y, estimate $839.4 million
Jardiance revenue $686.4 million, -2.1% y/y, estimate $823.7 million
Verzenio rev. $1.37 billion, +32% y/y, estimate $1.39 billion

Lilly now anticipates full-year sales between $45.4 and $46 billion, lowering the top end of earlier guidance from $46.6 billion. It raised its full-year guidance twice this year…

Sees revenue $45.4 billion to $46.0 billion, saw $45.4 billion to $46.6 billion, estimate $46.21 billion
Sees adjusted EPS $13.02 to $13.52, saw $16.10 to $16.60