The Deep State And The 2024 Election

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

The Deep State is the permanently entrenched bureaucracy that really runs a country.

It is THE establishment.

While the Deep State concept is commonly associated with the US government, many other countries have their own versions.

Looking at what happens in those countries when an outsider comes to power can help us better understand what the Deep State might do in the US.

If an outsider somehow comes to power, there are three possible outcomes:

The Deep State kills the outsider.

The outsider succeeds in crippling the Deep State and can implement an independent agenda.

The Deep State co-opts the outsider.

Numerous examples of this dynamic have played out in different countries in recent history.

Outcome #1: The Deep State Kills the Outsider

A prominent example of the Deep State killing an outsider is the assassination of JFK.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi was an outsider. However, Morsi did not break the back of the Egyptian Deep State, which swiftly overthrew him. Morsi later died in prison of a “heart attack.”

Economic Hit Man John Perkins claims the Deep State assassinated Jaime Roldos and Omar Torrijos, independent leaders of Ecuador and Panama after they resisted being co-opted.

Outcome #2: The Outsider Cripples the Deep State

In Cuba, Fidel Castro’s revolution was able to prevail because he crippled the old Cuban Deep State. Had Castro left the old Cuban Deep State intact, it likely would have overthrown and killed him.

In Iran, there was the Islamic Revolution in 1979 that threw out the US-backed Shah. It succeeded because Khomeini broke the back of the old Iranian Deep State through violent purges of the military and security agencies.

In Russia, it seems Putin was able to tame the old Russian Deep State to a large degree by successfully taking on the oligarchs and making an example out of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

In Turkey, Erdogan was once considered an outsider. Erdogan came within minutes of losing his life during a military coup in 2016 and was lucky to survive. After that coup failed, Erdogan seems to have tamed Turkey’s Deep State by purging and restructuring the military and intelligence agencies.

In El Salvador, Bukele was a genuine outsider. He successfully broke the old El Salvador Deep State, which the US Deep State really ran. He did this by neutralizing the violent gangs, which would have been the primary way the Deep State would have destabilized Bukele.

Outcome #3: The Deep State Co-Opts the Outsider

Trump’s first term is an excellent example of how the Deep State co-opted an outsider.

There are supposed outsiders in Europe like Giorgia Meloni in Italy or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. However, they displayed no intent or capability to take on the Deep State in Europe and were easily co-opted by it.

It seems that Fico in Slovakia was too independent for his own good. He barely survived an assassination attempt. I suspect he received the message and will get in line.

A Potential Trump Second Term

The main takeaway from these examples is that an outsider will not succeed in implementing an independent agenda unless he can take on the Deep State and win.

That is a dangerous proposition because there is a good chance the Deep State will kill him first.

Few leaders are willing to take that kind of gamble with their lives. Even fewer succeed.

That’s why many outsiders conclude it’s better to play ball with Deep State.

There is a decent chance Trump could return to the White House in a matter of months.

It’s important to keep this dynamic about the Deep State in mind as we assess the investment implications of Trump’s potential second term.

Given the recent assassination attempts, which nearly succeeded, it seems the Deep State felt Trump was going to be too independent in a second term.

Is Trump willing and able to cripple the Deep State?

Or will he be co-opted, as he largely was during his first term?

If I had to guess, I think Trump understood the message and will be co-opted if he is elected again—which is a big if.

Here’s the bottom line.

In order for Trump to be able to implement an independent agenda, he must:

Survive further Deep State assassination attempts.

Overcome cheating, a hostile media, and other shenanigans to win an election that will be rigged against him in every way possible.

Make the fateful decision to take on the Deep State.

Succeed in crippling the Deep State.

The odds of ALL of these things happening are tiny.

Many people want Trump to be a savior, but it’s not the way to bet—at least given current circumstances.

If investors want to plan for a potential second Trump term, the base case scenario is that the permanently entrenched bureaucracy that really runs a country will co-opt him.

That means we can expect Trump in a second term to continue with the same overall agenda but with a different flavor.

The Deep State’s overall agenda seems to be focused on perpetuating the US-led world order. In other words, the US government’s unmatched global dominance it has enjoyed since the end of World War 2.

The Deep State doesn’t care if Trump implements different social policies or other inconsequential domestic pet projects, so long as he does not do anything to fundamentally alter the dominance of the US in the world—like cutting the US government down to a limited Constitutional Republic with no foreign entanglements.

For example, with a new Trump administration, we will likely see the current anti-Russian focus substituted with an anti-China one. The idea is to continue pursuing a policy of US global hegemony but with a different flavor.

A new anti-China focus means we can expect:

Trade protectionism

Economic sanctions

Trade embargoes

Disruption of supply chains

Trump has also proposed devaluing the dollar to make US exports more competitive, so we can expect more currency debasement too.

Here’s the bottom line.

With the most pivotal election on the horizon, we’ve just entered the most turbulent period in US history…

It will be more dangerous than the 1930s, the 1940s, and even the 1860s.

That’s because severe crises are brewing on multiple fronts and converging.

The whole system will have a complete reset, and soon.

Is the 2024 US presidential election on November 5 going to be where it all comes to a head?

There’s an excellent chance that it will.

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