Tesla $25k car is a ‘2027 story’ after Giga Texas tour, analysts say

2024.03.15 3 min read

Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) plans for the next-generation $25,000 vehicle is “increasingly a 2027 story,” analysts said after touring the company’s Gigafactory Texas plant.

Tesla has tasted substantial growth in its production and deliveries over the past few years, but now, Wall Street is beginning to anticipate the potential for a pullback for the automaker.

Although Tesla was transparent with investors during its most recent earnings call, stating that the company is “in between two major growth waves” as it begins to work on its next-generation vehicle, analysts at Evercore believe the story will not truly occur until 2027, based on a new note to investors.

Tesla’s next-generation platform could mean ‘notably’ lower growth rate in 2024

Bloomberg first reported on the note’s content.

Tesla plans to begin production of the vehicle sometime in the latter half of 2025. However, Evercore recently toured the Texas factory, and believes the substantial growth will occur two years later.

Evercore analyst Chris McNally also said that the best-case scenario for production and deliveries for 2026 is somewhere around 500,000, half of what Wall Street has projected for that year’s production of the next-gen vehicle.

Therefore, Evercore believes Tesla’s true growth will occur in 2027.

The note from the analysts comes just one day after Wells Fargo’s Colin Lanan stated that Tesla is a “growth company with no growth.” Citing a 3 percent increase in sales volumes in the second half of 2023 compared to the first half while prices went down 5 percent.

Tesla mega-bull Ron Baron has an aggressive timeline for $25k EV

Not every analyst is adopting bearish sentiments when it comes to Tesla stock. Wedbush, who has been notably bullish on Tesla for some time, believes that the narratives surrounding the stock are overblown and still anticipates more than two million vehicle deliveries in 2024, even though Q1 is looking to be a slower start to the year than previously expected.

Tesla shares are down 4.20 percent at 2:29 p.m. on the East Coast.

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