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UNCLASSIFIED
Bitcoin (BTC USD) climbed back to $78,500 on Wednesday, November 4, hours after dipping to $75,736, as Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate in a US midterm blue wave traders had largely seen coming.
The dip was quick. Bitcoin slid nearly 3% from its pre-poll level as results came in on Tuesday night, touching its lowest price since mid-September around 03:00 UTC, or 10 pm in New York.
Then the buyers showed up. By 09:00 UTC, BTC had gained 3.6% from the low, and it was up 2.5% over 24 hours.
The rest of the market moved the same way. Gold jumped 2.6% to $4,044.70, and the dollar index fell 0.5%, while S&P 500 futures were flat to slightly higher.
The result itself wasn’t a shock. On Polymarket, traders gave Democrats a 94.5% chance of taking the House and 76.5% for the Senate before the vote. What the odds didn’t show was the size of the Senate win.
So did traders sell Bitcoin to punish the Republicans, or just to get through the count?
BREAKING: Kansas has elected its first Democratic senator since 1932
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) November 4, 2026
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How Big Was the Blue Wave?
Bigger than the Senate odds suggested. Democrats flipped at least five Republican seats, ABC News projected:
- Maine: Troy Jackson unseated Susan Collins
- Texas: James Talarico flipped the seat
- Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina: Josh Turek, Adam Hamilton and Annie Andrews flipped Republican seats
In the House, Democrats needed a net gain of three seats and passed that early Wednesday, the AP said. CNN called it only the second time in 50 years that control of both chambers changed in the same election.
President Trump took it calmly. “I think we’ll work with the Democrats, and we’ll get along very well with them,” he told the Wall Street Journal.
Are Traders Punishing the Republicans?
Not so far. The night looks more like traders cutting risk before a known event and buying back once it was over.
Three things point that way:
- The size of the move: Bitcoin moved about 1.7% after polls closed, close to the 1.8% options traders had priced in, Talos research head Kelly Ye noted. She saw no big leverage flush.
- The bounce level: the low landed almost exactly on the 50-week moving average at $75,733, a line that has held since mid-September.
- Other markets: gold and US stock futures rose overnight with BTC, and the dollar weakened.
The cost of the blue wave shows up in Washington, not in the price. A Democratic Congress means the crypto market structure bill likely waits until 2027, with Elizabeth Warren in line to chair the Senate Banking Committee.
Traders may still price that in, but the Bitcoin chart doesn’t show it yet.
EXPLORE: Bitcoin Price Wobbles as Democrats Take Congress: Crypto Market Structure Bill Faces Uncertainty
BTC USD Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Get Back Above $80,000?
The election-night low held the line that matters. Bitcoin closed every day since the Binance hack above its 200-day EMA, now at $76,528, and Tuesday night’s wick bounced off just under it.
Above, the ceiling hasn’t moved:
- 50-day EMA: $80,069, sloping down
- Resistance: $81,971, where the last bounce before the Binance hack stopped
- Support: $75,736, the election-night low, then $74,968, the September low
Rekt Capital warned overnight that Bitcoin kept failing at $78,000, with lower highs on the 3-day chart. It now trades just above that level, so a daily close over $78,000 would be the first sign the bounce has legs.
| Path | What has to happen | Next stop |
|---|---|---|
| Push higher | A daily close above $80,069 | $81,971, the pre-hack high |
| Stall | Holding between $75,736 and $80,069 | More range trade as Congress changes hands |
| Slip | A daily close below $75,736 | $74,968, then the $62,535 summer base |
The midterms are over, and BTC USD survived them. Now buyers have to prove they can clear the 50-day EMA at $80,069.
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The post BTC USD Bounces Back to $78,500 After a Democratic Sweep of Congress: Are Traders Really Punishing the Republicans? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
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