“Serious Warning”: Germany Misses November NatGas Storage Levels As Cold Snap Looms

Germany faces an imminent cold snap with natural gas inventories well below their 15-year seasonal average, leaving Europe’s largest economy with a limited buffer against back-to-back cold blasts. Prolonged cold would accelerate storage withdrawals and increase dependence on costly replacement LNG supplies from international markets. 

European NatGas prices are trading north of 100 euros per megawatt-hour.

Germany’s gas storage was about 61.2% full on Saturday, short of the 70% average it was supposed to reach by Sunday, according to AGSI figures reported by the German news agency DPA. The miss comes as Europe heads into an early cold spell. As we reported, European gas crossed the 100-euro “psychological mark” on Oct. 28 on winter supply fears.

The target is a blend of two rules. The Federal Network Agency’s storage page sets 80% as the November 1 level for every site, and 45% for six named ones: Bad Lauchstädt, Frankenthal, Hähnlein, Rehden, Stockstadt and Uelsen. The agency’s overall requirement works out to 70%, according to the energy site Clean Thinking.

The government says the shortfall is not a problem. An Economy Ministry spokeswoman told DPA that “Germany’s gas supply is secure for the coming winter, even with the current storage levels.” The Federal Network Agency said “Security of supply is guaranteed” and that it “continues to consider the risk of stressed gas supply to be low.”

The storage industry is less relaxed. Sebastian Heinermann, managing director of the storage association INES, called the missed target a “serious warning.” 

“Germany is entering the heating season with smaller safety reserves,” he said, and warned of vulnerability “in the event of exceptionally low temperatures.”

Germany’s 15-year average for this time of year stands at around 91%.

Last week, the EU’s benchmark TTF NatGas closed at 104 euros per megawatt-hour for the first time since the 2022 energy crisis.

Just weeks ago, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed that EU NatGas inventories declined for the first time this year. This is troubling because the EU as a whole has limited buffers ahead of winter.

We noted earlier on Sunday that Europe has to seriously rethink its energy dependence, as it must fight Asian traders for LNG cargoes on the open market. With the Strait of Hormuz still a mess, prices could keep rising.

European NatGas trades at roughly 11 times the US price.

Looking ahead, meteorologists are tracking an unprecedented sudden stratospheric warming event that could weaken the polar vortex. See the latest report on the event.